US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) has not been released yet, and the current expectation is lower than the previous value.

The previous value was 15.1, and the expected value is 13.5.
Lower than the previous value is bullish for the crypto market, higher than the previous value is bearish for the crypto market.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) good = crypto world is going to be hit?
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is bad = favorable for the crypto market?
What is the principle? Let's understand the logic of the dog farm harvesting.
Jargon: Non-farm payrolls exceed expectations = The Federal Reserve will tighten = Betting chips become more expensive = Cryptocurrency investors are being uprooted.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) = The Federal Reserve will inject money = Free chips at the gambling table = Doge owners are forced to pump the price
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1. Good US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), bad US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), transmission logic
1. The good transmission chain of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) (the dollar is the crypto circle's biological father)
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) surge → Unemployment rate ↓ → Wages rise ↑ → Inflation pressure ↑ → Federal Reserve raises interest rates ↑ → US dollar becomes more expensive → Risk assets (crypto market) are drained.
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US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) transmission chain (liquidity is the mother of the crypto world)
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) disappointing → Unemployment rate ↑ → Economic recession warning → Federal Reserve rate cut expectation ↑ → Dollar depreciation → Hot money flows into risk assets → Crypto market becomes the biggest winner
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Survivor's Guide to Non-farm Night
*【Spot Player】
Position Control: Do not exceed 40% of total capital for positions, leave enough for sub-orders.
Top up: Wait for stabilization signals (such as closing above 83,000 this week) to appropriately increase positions.
*[Contract Player]
Deleveraging position:
Don't go all in with heavy positions, pay attention to risk, and even avoid opening contracts.
Take profit and stop loss must be accompanied by:
The stop-loss and take-profit suggestions are within ±0.5% range after the key resistance.
For example, Bitcoin has a 400-point increase, and Ethereum has a 10-point increase.
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Set your stop loss and take profit properly, otherwise it's easy to get trapped.
Don't play "All-in", especially during the early morning market as it can be quite volatile.
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Simple way to look at data stealing techniques:
1. Before the data is released
Check exchange contract positions:
When the long-short ratio is greater than 1.2, place a reverse order in advance.
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2. Moment of data release
Situation 1: New jobs > 300,000
→ Go long and short, target the previous low -3%, set the stop loss at the previous high point before the data.
Situation 2: New jobs < 150,000
→ After the first wave of the rally, chase the long position during the pullback, and set the stop loss at the previous low before the data.
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3. 4 hours after the data is released
Observe the divergence between BTC and the Nasdaq trends:
→ Nasdaq rises while BTC falls = Institutions abandon coins and choose stocks → Continue to be bearish
→ Nasdaq down, BTC up = independent market in the crypto space → increase positions in altcoins
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3. The Laws of Metaphysics
In the past 12 Non-farm Payrolls nights, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction 9 times within 4 hours after the data was released. ( When the data is good, it first drops and then rises; when the data is bad, it first rises and then drops. ) The real direction is only after 1 AM.
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In 63% of the months, the BTC trend on Non-farm Payrolls night is contrary to the data direction.
A "dog trap" must appear within two hours after the data is released (false breakout) (
If the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for the month is released on Friday, there will be a big fluctuation and spike over the weekend.
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4. Counterintuitive Traps (Only Veterans Understand)
1. Poor US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) does not equal rising cryptocurrency prices: If CPI exceeds expectations at the same time, it may trigger "stagflation panic," causing BTC to plummet.
2. Suspicions of data fabrication: When the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) are far below expectations but the labor participation rate declines simultaneously, it may be a "fake fall". Be wary of market makers luring in buyers before a reversal.
3. Unemployment Rate Paradox: Unemployment rate rises but hourly wage growth exceeds 5% → Bearish (persistent inflation), short BTC/long gold
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Reminder:
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is just an appetizer, the real knife is the CPI data released afterwards.
Remember the mnemonic
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is good → wait for CPI to strike, US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is bad → wait for the Fed to ease, it's all a gamble anyway, might as well follow the big players and ride the waves~