The Federal Reserve (FED) will release the latest meeting minutes at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday.

On April 9, the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve will be released at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday. These minutes detail the discussions from the March 19-20 policy meeting, during which the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and signaled a policy of three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points. However, times have changed, and the market landscape has undergone a drastic transformation. Following Trump’s announcement of a global tariff plan on April 2, U.S. stocks plummeted, and several economists warned of a potential recession within the year. Powell clearly shifted to a hawkish stance in his speech on April 4, warning that “we are facing a highly uncertain outlook while bearing the risks of rising unemployment and inflation.” Recent futures market data show that traders have adjusted their rate cut expectations for the year to four times. Although these minutes reflect the policy considerations of the “pre-tariff era,” they can still reveal the degree of consensus among the Federal Reserve’s decision-makers at that time. Idanna Appio, a senior analyst at First Eagle Global Value, noted: “There were significant divergences among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook at the March meeting.” Market analysts will also focus on the discussions about financial stability in the minutes. Since March, the vulnerabilities in the credit market have intensified, and volatility has continued to rise. If the minutes indicate that the Federal Reserve was already vigilant about potential risks to the financial system at that time, investors may need to reassess the resilience of its policies. (Jin10)