Global Financial Turmoil Under Tariff Storm: From Stock Market, Coin Market to Deep-level Games

1. Event Trigger: How Tariff Policies “Strangle” the Global Market

1. Policy Shock and Market Crash

• US stock market crash: On April 3, after Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs,” the three major US stock indices collectively plunged, with the Dow Jones falling by 5.5% in a single day, the S&P 500 index dropping by 5.97%, and the market value of the tech sector “seven sisters” evaporating by over $505 billion;

• A-shares follow the decline: On April 7, the three major A-share indices opened more than 4% lower, with the ChiNext Index dropping 6.77%, and panic sentiment spreading in the market;

• Cryptocurrency plummets: Bitcoin falls below $83,000, Ethereum crashes by 10%, and MEME coins on the BSC chain are generally halved;

2. Global asset indiscriminate decline

• Commodity markets: WTI crude oil fell below $60 per barrel, the lowest since 2021; Gold’s safe-haven properties briefly failed, and spot gold once fell below $3,000;

• Exchange rate fluctuations: The Japanese yen rose by 1% due to safe-haven demand, while non-U.S. currencies such as the Australian dollar and euro collectively depreciated;

II. Deep Logic: Trade War 2.0 and Market Pricing Reconstruction

1. History Repeating Itself? The Ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

• The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 triggered a global trade war, leading to the Great Depression. Now, Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” cover all trading partners, with rates as high as 49%, increasing the risk of global supply chain disruptions.

• Inflation spiral threat: 97% of clothing and footwear in the United States rely on imports, and UBS estimates that the price of consumer goods may rise by 10%-12%, with low-income households bearing the brunt;

2. The “Triple Decoupling” of Sino-American Rivalry

• Progressive Trade-Technology-Finance Pressures: Everbright Securities pointed out that tariffs are only the beginning, and follow-up technology blockades (such as export restrictions on AI chips) and financial sanctions (delisting of Chinese concept stocks) may follow.

• China’s response logic: According to the analysis of Huatai Securities, China’s policy toolbox is sufficient, with RRR cuts, consumption stimulus, and infrastructure investment becoming the main hedging forces, and the strategic position of domestic demand has been enhanced;

3. The “De-risking Paradox” of Cryptocurrency

• The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets (such as the Nasdaq) has risen to 0.5, losing its “digital gold” halo;

• Leveraged liquidation chain reaction: The highly leveraged positions (e.g., 20 times) of MEME coins on the BSC chain will be liquidated in batches after the price fluctuates by 5%, intensifying the sell-off;

III. Trend Prediction: Structural Opportunities in the Storm

1. Short-term Market Path

• Key milestones: Tariffs officially take effect on April 9, China’s countermeasures are implemented on April 10; if negotiations do not restart, U.S. stocks may fall another 5%-10%;

• Cryptocurrency rebound opportunity: If BTC stabilizes at $80,000, MEME coin may rebound due to community enthusiasm, but caution is needed regarding regulatory crackdowns (such as the Trump family token incident);

2. Mid to Long-term Asset Allocation Logic

• Safe-haven assets: Gold (target $3100), yen, and government bond ETFs (such as TLT) remain safe havens for funds;

• Counter-cyclical track:

Consumption and Infrastructure: Under the impetus of domestic demand policies in China, leading companies in home appliances and building materials (such as Midea and Conch Cement) may benefit;

Technological independence: Domestic chips (SMIC), AI large models (Baidu Wenxin) receive policy support, and valuation recovery is expected;

• Reshaping the value of cryptocurrency:

RWA track: Tokenization of US Treasuries (such as Ondo Finance), collateralized lending (Maple Finance) annualized returns exceed 4%, attracting institutions like Grayscale to increase their positions.

Layer 2 technology dividends: Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade may activate staking demand, with tokens like ARB and OP looking bullish in the medium term by 50%;

IV. Investor Strategies: Defense, Hedging, and Left-Side Layout

1. Defensive Operations

• Reduce holdings in high volatility assets: liquidate MEME coin, tech stocks, and keep 20%-30% in cash or stablecoins (USDC, DAI);

• Option protection: Buy BTC put options (exercise price 75,000 USD), Nasdaq ETF put options (strike price lower than current price 10%);

2. Hedging and Arbitrage

• Cross-market arbitrage: Long gold/short crude oil (historical volatility spread widens to 30%), long yen/short Australian dollar;

• A/H share premium convergence: Increase holdings in undervalued blue-chip Hong Kong stocks (such as Tencent and Meituan), betting on capital inflow.

3. Left Layout Opportunities

• Bitcoin Dollar-Cost Averaging: Buy in batches in the range of $76,000-$82,000, with a long-term target of $180,000 (Galaxy forecast);

• Policy beneficiary stocks: sectors such as environmental protection (carbon neutrality subsidies), military industry (geopolitical tensions), etc. may perform strongly against the trend;

Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty

The tariff storm of 2025 is both a growing pain of globalization and an opportunity for asset revaluation. History has proven that trade protectionism will eventually backfire, while technological revolution and policy wisdom are the keys to breaking the deadlock. Investors need to abandon the fantasy of “quick victory” and capture structural dividends amidst defense, waiting for dawn in the eye of the storm.