The analyst believes that the fair price of Bitcoin is 40% higher.

As of April 25, 2025, the most capitalized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is trading at 40% below its actual value, based on the calculation of mining costs. This opinion was shared by Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, in his X.

The analyst believes that BTC has growth potential up to fair value levels, which includes the costs of mining the cryptocurrency.

Want to stay updated on the main crypto events? Subscribe to our weekly newsletter and receive the most important news directly in your inbox!

Charles Edwards drew his followers’ attention to the Bitcoin Energy Value chart. The term refers to a valuation model that links the value of Bitcoin to the amount of energy expended in its mining. According to this model, the more energy is spent on mining BTC, the higher its intrinsic value. The theory is based on the assumption that energy costs reflect the level of security and resilience of the network, as well as serve as a barrier to entry for new participants.

If the Bitcoin Energy Value model estimates the intrinsic value of Bitcoin at $130,000, and the current market price of the cryptocurrency is around $93,000, then BTC is trading 40% below its estimated intrinsic value. The difference may indicate the undervaluation of the asset, suggesting the potential for growth in its price.

Observations show that the market price of BTC follows the energy cost over time. The correlation is especially noticeable in 2018, 2020, and 2023.

Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 40% below the estimated fair price according to the Bitcoin Energy Value model. Historically, similar discrepancies have preceded an increase in BTC price.

It is important to clarify that models for estimating the value of Bitcoin based on energy cost calculations are theoretical. They do not take into account all the factors that influence the price of the cryptocurrency, such as market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory changes. Therefore, one should not take information about the discount on BTC according to Bitcoin Energy Value as a definitive signal to buy the cryptocurrency for profit based on its guaranteed rise.

Many participants in the crypto community agree with Charles Edwards’ positive forecasts. At the same time, they also pay attention to other prerequisites for the likely continuation of BTC’s growth. For example, analyst MartyParty noted the interest of large investors in Bitcoin ETFs. In his opinion, institutional investors are buying cryptocurrency-based funds because they know that BTC is programmed for growth. According to him, the basis of positive forecasts is the movement of the cryptocurrency’s price following global liquidity.

“Spot Bitcoin ETFs bought nearly 25,000 BTC in the last 3 days — totaling $2.3 billion. From the panic of retail investors to the ‘diamond’ hands of institutions. Institutions know: Bitcoin follows the money supply with a 3-month lag,” writes MartyParty.

We remind you that earlier the BeInCrypto editorial team reported that technical indicators point to an upcoming rally for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Do you want to become part of the large and friendly BIC community? Then join our group on Telegram — there you will find communication with crypto enthusiasts, assistance from our experts, and exclusive comments from experienced analysts.