Hotcoin Research: Can Bitcoin reach 100,000 USD and signal the arrival of alts season?

This paper analyzes the characteristics and driving factors of this round of market from multiple dimensions such as macroeconomic environment, market structure, on-chain index, current round of cottage market characteristics, and potential track trend. This article is written by Hotcoin Research and is compiled, compiled and written by TechFlow. (Synopsis: Coin price" Bitcoin rushed to 107,000 magnesium! Traders greedily expect a new high of 117,000) (background added: the Fed secretly printed money!) Bought $43.6 billion in Treasury bonds in May, bitcoin tasted quantitative easing dividends? I. Introduction As the price of Bitcoin regained its position at the $100,000 mark, Ethereum rebounded sharply, and the crypto market as a whole rose. The on-chain activity and trading volume of many public chains have increased significantly, indicating that the enthusiasm of funds to enter the market is once again high, and risk appetite continues to rise. Under the dual effect of macro view and endogenous driving force of the market, the crypto market is in a period of high-energy momentum. In this context, the market is generally concerned about whether the cottage season has begun. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and driving factors of the current round of market from multiple dimensions such as macro economic environment, market structure, on-chain index, current round of cottage market characteristics, potential track trend, etc., and makes a forward-looking outlook on possible future trends and risks, so as to provide reference for readers to grasp the current crypto market pattern and future trends. Second, macro background and market structure analysis Under the combined effect of the easing of Sino-US tariff tensions, loose global liquidity, Trump’s frequent calls for interest rate cuts, and the continuous improvement of the crypto regulatory environment, the structure of the crypto market has undergone profound adjustments: the dominant rate of bitcoin has fallen, the cottage seasonal index has strengthened, and the supply of stablecoins has risen sharply, laying a good foundation for the evolution of the subsequent cottage market. 1. Macro environment and policy background Recently, there have been many signals in favor of risk assets in the global macro environment. U.S. inflation fell sharply, with the CPI hitting a four-year low of just 2.3% year-on-year in April, allowing the Fed to remain on hold in May, keeping the federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range. At the same time, there was a major détente in the US-China trade war: the two sides reached a 90-day tariff suspension agreement, the United States reduced tariffs on Chinese products from the original 125% to 145% to 10% to 30%, and China also reduced tariffs from 125% to 10%. This “ceasefire” has lowered fears of a recession, and Wall Street institutions have lowered their recession probability forecasts. US President Trump has repeatedly pressured the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. While Fed officials remain cautious about cutting rates early, markets expect two modest rate cuts in the second half of the year. This series of macro positive news has boosted global risk appetite, and capital has re-poured into risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. The improvement in the macro environment lays the groundwork for a structural bull market in the crypto market in 2025: easing expectations increase, liquidity returns, and investors are ready to buy various crypto assets “with cash in hand”. As of May 15, the total cryptocurrency market cap has climbed to $3.5 trillion. 2. Changes in the structure of the crypto market The structure of the crypto market has changed significantly in this round of the market. The first is that Bitcoin’s dominance rate peaked and fell. At the beginning of the year, due to the influx of institutional funds, the proportion of bitcoin market capitalization (BTC Dominance) climbed all the way, and at one point in early May, it was close to a high of 64-65%, reflecting that the market was still in the “bitcoin season”. As Bitcoin returned to the $100,000 mark on May 9 and continued to move higher, funds began to rotate from Bitcoin to the broader altcoin sector, and according to TradingView, Bitcoin’s dominance rate plummeted by about 4.6 percentage points in just one week, the largest weekly decline of the year. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market peaked and fell, which is one of the typical signals for the start of the “cottage season” in history. Source: At the same time, the overall market capitalization of altcoins has rebounded significantly. After falling to a stage low of around $0.93 trillion in April, the total altcoin market capitalization (excluding BTC) rebounded strongly in May and has now broken through $1.45 trillion, successfully breaking through the declining wedge pattern since late 2024 and entering a new round of upswing. This breakthrough corresponds to a significant decline in the Bitcoin dominance curve and the “disengagement” of funds from a single Bitcoin asset and reallocation to other currencies. Source: 3. Altcoin Seasonal Index Analysis A more intuitive sentiment indicator is the Altcoin Season Index. According to Coinglass, the index fell as low as 14 on April 26. The altcoin seasonal index has quickly risen to 31. Although it has not yet reached the threshold of more than 75 “official cottage season”, it has moved out of the state of Bitcoin’s unique show and moved to the neutral strong area. This confirms that the market sentiment is shifting from conservative to risk-taking: investors are starting to stake altcoins. This shift in sentiment is also reflected in on-chain data, with several public chains seeing significant growth in early May in terms of active addresses and transaction volume, indicating an increase in investor engagement. The total transaction value of DEX also rose 30% for the week to $8.4 billion. The resurgence of long-dormant on-chain activity indicates a return in market sentiment. Source: In addition, the total market capitalization of stablecoins hit an all-time high of about $245 billion in early May. Among them, the supply of USDT, the leading stablecoin, surged, and the market capitalization exceeded the $150 billion mark. By comparison, USDT was around $83 billion at the peak of the bull market in 2021. As a bridge between fiat and crypto, the soaring supply of stablecoins means that there are massive funds entering the market through the stablecoin channel and waiting for the opportunity to enter the market, which provides “fuel” for the further rise of altcoins, and funds are expected to continue to be converted from stablecoins to BTC and various copycat assets, boosting a new round of markets. 3. Characteristics of the current round of altcoin market Historical experience shows that the altcoin season usually occurs after a sharp rise or stage peak of bitcoin, and funds begin to seek higher yields and flow to small and mid-cap coins. The $100,000 Bitcoin rush is the trigger for the launch of this round of cottage season, and the rhythm of capital rotation is in line with previous cycles. However, compared with the previous cottage season, this round of the market is significantly different in terms of duration, growth structure and participants. Duration and startup cadence: Altcoin frenzy in the past has often lasted for months during the volatility or even callback phase of the Bitcoin range. As of mid-May, many altcoins have only seen modest gains. As one analyst quipped: “Most altcoins are down 90% from their December highs and are rebounding 10% this week, with some shouting ‘the coveted cottage season is here.’” The full-scale outbreak of the cottage market has not yet reached the level of national excitement in previous cycles. The cottage season index has just recovered from the bottom but is far from touching the typical crazy line of 75; Social media attention and retail FOMO sentiment are also still brewing. Therefore, this round of cottage market may be slower and last longer, rather than falling as sharply as in the past. Gainers knot…