Four years ago, on Wednesday, May 19, a person sat in the hotel foolishly looking at their phone, with an account showing unrealized losses of over 600,000.

On Monday, May 19, four years later, a person sits in the company slowly writing text, with an account balance of over one million unrealized gains.

In the second half of 2021, I ultimately lost money on the second wave of altcoins. It's not yet 2025, and I don't know how it will end, but I have gained some insight, and I estimate it will have a good conclusion. These four years have felt like falling from heaven to hell for me. Perhaps like many of my peers, we are experiencing the biggest and longest tribulation of our lives. Some will never recover from this, while others will find a new window of opportunity for themselves.

I should belong to the latter; this circle has given me the courage to be reborn. Gang Rinpoche said that in life, every step counts. We often wander along the path of life, clearly having a wide road to walk, yet we choose the thorny path instead. This may be because the opportunity has not yet arrived, or perhaps because we are not yet prepared. If a person is not ready, even if there are countless opportunities, they will not be able to see them. However, when the time is ripe, heaven has its own way of guiding you to the land of dreams in your heart. My experiences over the past few years have made me increasingly understand this saying, leading me to gradually believe in the cycles of heaven and the law of cause and effect. Therefore, this round I have heavily invested in BTC and some mainstream value assets, directly discarding the illusory dreams described by the remaining 99% of altcoins.

Since the beginning of spring this year, apart from playing with small positions in my sub-account to sense the market atmosphere, I haven't made any large position operations. I'm still waiting for the high point I expect. I still believe that the bull market hasn't ended, and many mainstream altcoins have not yet reached their peaks. There is a cause for every effect; although I really haven't made much profit now, my mood is pleasant and my emotions are healthy. My waist is good, my kidneys are good, my health is good, and the food and drinks are delicious. I estimate I can live a few more years.

This time BTC has achieved six consecutive weekly gains, with the temporary high point at 10.7K. The duration of this surge is longer than the four consecutive gains after Trump’s election victory. The rapid liquidation of both long and short positions from this morning until now has resulted in a total liquidation of 645 million USD across the network in the past 24 hours, with 392 million USD in long positions and 227 million USD in short positions, and the liquidation amount for ETH exceeds that of BTC. History tends to repeat itself astonishingly; if the market has reached a temporary peak, such extreme breakouts generally occur. Looking at it from another angle, BTC's continuous rise in this round should be nearing its end, similar to the previous two times, falling short of the previous high by 2000.

Even if this period of time directly comes to a new high of more than 110,000, it is of little significance to the market, many retail investors have no sense, most people are looking forward to the retracement to pick up people on the car, no one plays the market dog village how to make money? Then the next market is likely to replicate the trend of May 23 and May 24, retrace to find support points, and then shock for a period of time to make liquidity abundant, with the good news in the second half of the year and then bloody pulling. From April to June 23, from April to July 24, and from January to April 25, these three surges did not break the shock retracement, with the smallest range being 18% and the highest being 32%. Therefore, it is relatively certain that if there is no sudden black swan, the magnitude of BTC retracement should not be very large, and the most extreme retracement of 20% is probably 83K-84K, and the ideal is of course to maintain above 97K, which is the starting point of this round of high market.

But for our friends holding altcoins, don't underestimate this pullback. For mainstream altcoins, a pullback might still be an opportunity to get in, but for the 90% of the market that has no value and is only based on speculation, adding to positions during a pullback will only lead to a storm of blood and jump into the abyss. Looking back at the market six months after Chuan Jianguo took office, it was a typical institutional bull market, with rapid rises and slow declines leading to repeated harvests. This is also what I am most worried about in my dynamics at the end of 2024: whether institutions will change the four-year cycle of BTC, whether they will alter the old investors' desperate search for the sword in the boat, and coupled with the unstable factor of not relying on "Pu", the manipulators will wash and pump the market even more violently, making it unbearable for those who want to trade on highs and lows.

Some people may laugh at friends who are still insisting on dead taking this round, saying that the rules of the market have changed, and dead taking is not scientific at all. Personally, I don't agree with this statement, everyone's money is not blown by the wind, I choose to die with the currency that I think is valuable, it is based on my relatively mature cognitive system, and I can be responsible for the money invested in a certain coin. To be honest, the 60% retracement of ETH in this round of bull market has indeed broken my cognition, but because I have a deep understanding of the ecology and past of this coin, I am not worried about whether this coin can break through the previous high, it is nothing more than a matter of earning more and earning less.

Additionally, let me give an example. Many friends leave comments asking how to view WLD? How much can it rise? In fact, this is a very superficial question. If you don't have a mature cognitive system, you can easily fall into the trap of following the crowd. A long time ago, it was mentioned in an article that if you want to invest in or even heavily invest in a coin, you should collect information about this coin through at least 10 different media. You should spend at least 1 day researching the K-line patterns of this coin, and if capable, it's best to also look at comprehensive evaluations from foreign websites. Once you have completed the above tasks, you must ask yourself clearly whether your capital and time costs can support at least a 1-year cycle, and whether you can bear a loss of more than 80%. Many people's misconceptions arise here, hoping that after buying in, the price will surge in no time, hoping that others can do the analysis for them, hoping that others will lead them to make money. This situation is very common in the crypto space, but 99% of it comes from a deep pit, especially after the birth of MEME and the prosperity of self-media channels.

There has always been a situation in the crypto world where bad money drives out good money. Many people foolishly cannot distinguish between the difference between price and value, questioning whether price drives value or if value determines price. The difficulty in the emergence of this round of altcoin bull market is largely due to the low entry barriers in the market, leading to a disconnection in the influx of new funds.

Some friends asked me, since Boss Cat also recommends WLD, why don't you buy some? Let me put it this way, apart from BTC, I don't have much faith in other coins. BTC is the long-term value target I consider for my retirement, while other coins are just tools and vehicles for making money to me. Everyone has different backgrounds and understandings of information, so the portfolio will definitely be different. I need to maximize reasonable profits with limited funds and time. Although I do not hold WLD and have not interacted much with him, it does not affect my respect and admiration for Boss Cat. If it weren't for his recommendations and encouragement back in the day, perhaps I wouldn't have been able to persist in writing dynamically for four years.

I've written a bit too much, so I'll stop here. Starting tomorrow, I will resume some subscription updates, which will contain more of my feelings and understanding about the community, and I will gradually organize some collections of writings. I also want to try live streaming to chat with everyone. I will adjust the subscription price to make it relatively easy for most friends to see. The reason for setting some small thresholds is that someone previously left a message saying I was scamming money by changing my avatar and name, which left me confused. The current dynamic square is not what it used to be; many in-depth bloggers have left this scene. After checking out a few recommendations and hot topics, I can roughly understand why so many people are losing money now.

The result of the cryptocurrency world is a compensation for one's character and cognition, always adhering to the principle that choice is greater than effort. One must learn to wait when opportunities are not yet present, be bold in investing heavily when opportunities arise, and hold firm in one's positions when faced with major issues. Li Xiaolai once wrote that money flows from those who are anxious at heart to those who are calm at heart. To survive long-term in the cryptocurrency world, one must have a good circle of information, good exchanges of ideas, and good sharing of logic. I believe all these are indispensable and are also the original intention behind establishing this dynamic.

Seize the opportunity and work hard to make money. The world is so big, I want to see more ☕#BTC能否冲上11万？ #山寨币季节指数升至24