Bitcoin’s historical pattern shows that the real risk isn’t when long-term holders start selling—it’s when their selling stops. That’s when demand falters, absorption fails, and early adopters turn into forced holders once again. We saw it in March 2024. We saw it again in January 2025. The signal was clear both times—and we turned bearish accordingly.

Right now, long-term holder supply is still rising, which suggests this cycle isn’t over yet. We’ve called the breakout above $84,500, then the move to $95,000 and $106,000. Our next target is $122,000—driven by the same macro-cycle and behavioral flow analysis that’s helped us call major turning points.”