In the posts, friends often ask if ETH is worth it now? What price would be more suitable to buy?

I just happened to see some information and wanted to share it for everyone's reference. Starting from on-chain data, we can refer to two key indicators to assist in judgment: ETH Realized Price and the cost price of ETH 2.0 staking.

In simple terms, the Realized Price (blue line) is the weighted average price of all ETH at the last movement in the market, equivalent to the overall cost on the chain. The staking cost (red line) is the weighted price of all ETH deposited in the Beacon Chain at the time of staking, which serves as the cost benchmark for stakers.

As of now, the staking cost line for ETH is $2,387, and the Realized Price is $2,023. From past trends, the price has repeatedly found support when approaching the red line. Once it falls below the red line, it means that many stakers are in a state of unrealized losses, and they tend to continue to lock up or increase their positions, reducing the selling pressure in circulation.

What deserves more attention is the blue line: when the ETH price is below the Realized Price, most on-chain chips are in loss, and this range is often the "bottom accumulation zone" that value players focus on. Looking at the market trends since 2016, as long as you accumulate in batches below the blue line and hold for the long term, the probability of making a profit is extremely high.

Below are the trend data after the price broke through the Realized Price several times:

📉 August 2018: Blue line $325, dropped to $85, maximum drawdown 74%;
📉 July 2019: The blue line dropped from $236 to $121, a 49% retracement;
📉 March 2020: The blue line dropped from $210 to $110, a pullback of 47%;
📉 June 2022: Blue line $1,702, fell to $993, a pullback of 42%;
📉 November 2022: Blue line $1,522, dropped to $1,099, a pullback of 28%;
📉 March 2025: The blue line fell from $2,034 to $1,472, a 27% retracement.

We can see that as the market capitalization of ETH grows, extreme pullbacks are gradually decreasing. In the early days, such as in 2018, the maximum pullback could reach 74%; however, in the past three years, the maximum decline has basically been controlled within 30%, and the pullback duration has also been shorter.

This reflects a trend: more and more institutions and long-term holders are compressing the circulating supply through staking and other methods, strengthening the bottom support for prices.

In summary, when the ETH price drops to or even below the Realized Price line, it is often a high value buy zone. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, over a longer period, these positions have a very high potential for returns. #交易策略分享 #周末行情分析 #加密市场回调