Crude oil prices big dump The Federal Reserve (FED) Bowman shifts to a dovish stance

[Coin World] Trump: I want to thank Iran for notifying us in advance. Encouraging Iran to move towards peace.

Federal Reserve Board member Bowman: Now is the time to consider adjusting the policy interest rate.

The US June S&P Global Services PMI is 53.1, expected to be 53.0.

Carney of Canada: It is possible to reach a correct agreement with the United States, but there are no guarantees.

Federal Reserve’s Goolsbee: So far, the impact of tariffs has not been as bad as imagined.

Trump: Everyone keep an eye on the falling oil prices, I am watching.

Bank of England’s Bailey: The UK will enjoy the benefits of low debt costs for a longer time than other places.

European Central Bank’s Lagarde: Survey data indicates that, overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened.

White House: Trump remains interested in a diplomatic solution with Iran.

NEC Director Hassett: If Iran retaliates, there will be a large amount of oil reserves.

Market: WTI crude oil fell $6.13 to $67.71, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond decreased by 3.5 bps to 4.34%, gold rose $5 to $3373, the S&P 500 increased by 1.0%, the pound led the gains, while the Canadian dollar lagged.

Today’s news and price trends remind us that even in times of war, the puppeteers are just playing a game.

Today’s first tip comes from Trump, who verbally suppressed oil prices. This isn’t the first time Trump has made some market-sensitive comments on price direction, and you may remember him hinting at buying stocks ahead of the Liberation Day tariffs. The situation is similar today, as we learned shortly after Iran’s retaliatory attack that the United States had been warned in advance of the location of their attack – essentially, it was all a play. As a result, crude oil prices plummeted, which is the clearest sign of the de-escalation of the war. If anything, it looks like the war could be completely over in a matter of days, since there is no ground invasion or the will of the United States to engage for a long time. After peaking at $78.40 shortly after the open, WTI crude suffered a heavy sell-off throughout the day, falling to $67.70, down $11 intraday.

The situation is similar in other places, with all war-related transactions being lifted: the stock market rises, and the buying of dollars reverses. The shift of Fed’s Bowman also aided the rebound of the dollar. Last year, she opposed the Fed’s interest rate cuts, but now she calls for cuts as early as July. With Trump preparing to select a new Fed chair, this shift does not bode well for the credibility of the Fed or the dollar.

The reason for the dollar’s current weakness — USD/JPY has completely reversed a 200-point gain — is the considerable uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy. Other central banks have cut interest rates to a level where they can pause at lower rates, but the Fed may significantly cut rates from here, especially as oil prices drop like they did today.

Now people’s attention is focused on the euro as it approaches 1.16 again and looks set to close at the day’s high.