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The US stock market opened and crashed! Nasdaq futures plummeted by 1.6%. First of all, don't panic; opportunities arise from the fall.
As the daily trading opened, the market staged a "high diving" performance. All three major futures indices turned red, with Nasdaq futures leading the way, plummeting over 1.6%. The tech giants are in a dire situation— all three major indices are in the red.
Many people can't understand: What happened to the promised interest rate cut celebration? Why did it suddenly change?
This will be divided into several parts.
1. The market circulation has sharply decreased.
The "wallet" of the U.S. government is running dry! After the longest shutdown in history lasting 36 days, the financial situation is precarious, forcing them to issue bonds madly, drawing out the cash flowing in the market to fill the gaps. As previously mentioned, cryptocurrency, government bonds, and the U.S. dollar create three hedging situations to maintain liquidity.
The Federal Reserve's current inaction and the prolonged government shutdown are the only factors that have shifted from positive to negative.
2. The Federal Reserve's "hawkish stance" reappears, interest rate cut dreams shattered.
The market's expectation for two subsequent interest rate cuts has been shattered, unexpectedly leading to a "hawk-dove clash" within the Federal Reserve. On one side, there are calls for aggressive rate cuts, while on the other, there are stern warnings that "it is too early." The expectations have become completely chaotic, and the market has begun to avoid risks, prompting a shift in funds.
3. I think this is a structural pattern correction, not a real turn towards a bull market concept. It is a technical correction triggered by a typical "liquidity shock" + "expectation mismatch." Once the U.S. government begins to operate and funds flow back, the long-term favorable situation will generate a higher increase in just a few days. The more it falls now, the greater the space for the subsequent rebound.
I am V1, and I hope this perspective can help you.