The signs of Bitcoin bottoming out are mainly reflected in four aspects: technical indicators, on-chain data, market sentiment, and macro factors. On the technical level, the price rebounded after touching key support like the 200-day EMA, forming a W bottom or double bottom pattern. Recently testing around 89,000 to 90,000 multiple times; if it doesn't break, it will be a signal. The MACD golden cross and RSI oversold rebound show that selling pressure is weakening, with signs already appearing in the 4H and daily chart. Volume confirmation of the bottom follows a shrinkage. On the on-chain data side, miner capitulation signals are shown through the Hash Ribbon indicator, with mining difficulty reaching 152T, and the increase in hashrate indicates weakened selling pressure. Net outflows from exchanges have increased, with seller risk dropping below 0.0012, and short-term holder MVRV approaching 1.8 (cost base 89,000-90,000). ETF net inflows have reduced to 5.24 billion USD/month, still supporting the 90,000 mark. Long-term holders like whale addresses have begun to accumulate. Market sentiment is extremely fearful, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 11-12, search volume plummeting by 90%, and bearish sentiment on social media rising. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations exceeded 341 million USD, and long positions were cleared, similar to the scenario in 2020 when funds shifted towards Bitcoin. Macro factors are favourable, with the Bitcoin/gold ratio hitting a bottom of -2.5, and the potential rebound of gold from 4,900 USD could drive capital rotation. Institutions predict a target of 165,000 USD, with ETF scale exceeding 120 billion USD. November's seasonal returns are +46%, combined with expectations of a 75 basis point rate cut from the Fed and Powell's dovish signals alleviating trade war concerns. This ratio has historically triggered increases of 100%-600%. In summary: Bitcoin has erased this year's gains, falling below 100,000 USD, and the bottoming process is not complete, with weekly fluctuations expected for 1-2 weeks. However, multiple signals converge to suggest a bottom around 89,000-90,000, with a high probability of rebound, targeting 113,000-130,000 USD. If it breaks below 89,000 USD, be cautious of a dip; breaking above 111,900 USD confirms bullish.

BTC-1.58%
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