(Bitcoin once touched 93000 before pulling back)

Leading capital sentiment: extremely sensitive, huge Gamma exposure, tomorrow Powell's words could trigger violent fluctuations of ±8-10%. Scenario 1: Super dovish (Powell significantly turns dovish, probability 30%) — the main upward wave directly starts with the trigger conditions: Powell mentions super dovish phrases like "labor market weakening significantly", "inflation is basically back to 2%", "we have room to ease further", and the market immediately prices in the number of rate cuts in 2025 from the current 3 times to 5-6 times. Trend path: Within 30 minutes after tomorrow's speech, a direct violent surge, breaking through the resistance levels of 93300-98000-102000.
In the first two weeks of December, it surged to 98,000-102,000 (this is the current biggest pain point of open contracts).
Directly reaching 110,000-120,000 by the end of December to early January (1.618 Fibonacci extension level)
Q1 2025's most insane target is 138,000-142,000 (many institutions have their annual targets around here)

Shanzhai coins will take off directly, the SOL/ETH ratio will soar, and the alt/BTC seasonal index will return to the 2021 path. Scenario 2: Moderately dovish/neutrally bullish (most likely, probability 45-50%) — The triggering condition for a strong upward trend: Powell did not say hawkish words, but also did not provide a super dovish surprise, maintaining "data dependent," with the probability of a rate cut in December remaining above 80%. Trend path: Tomorrow will first pull up to 94500-98500, then consolidate for 3-5 days to digest.
Slowly push to 105,000-107,000 before mid-December
Breakthrough 110,000 (current maximum resistance) before and after Christmas.
Target 116,000-122,000 for January-February 2025
This path is the most comfortable, and funds will continue to accumulate, with daily inflows into the spot ETF maintaining between 3-5 billion USD.

Scenario 3: True Neutral (Sideways Consolidation, Probability 15-20%) Trigger Conditions: Powell's speech is ambiguous, neither indicating a significant deterioration in employment nor completely closing the door on interest rate cuts, market expectations remain basically unchanged. Trend Path: Short-term oscillation at a high level in the 90,000-98,000 range for 2-3 weeks.
Do not break the previous high of 101,400, nor effectively fall below 85,000.
Altcoins are consolidating or slightly retracing by 10-20%.
Wait until the FOMC meeting on December 18 to choose a direction.
This situation is the most tormenting, but as long as no hawkish surprises occur, it is highly probable that it will eventually break upwards.

Scenario 4: Hawkish Surprise (Worst Case, currently I only give it an 8-10% probability) - Trigger conditions for deep adjustment or even the start of a bear market: Powell emphasizes "inflation remains elevated," "tariff will be inflationary," "we may need to hold rates higher for longer," and the probability of a rate cut in December drops directly below 30%. Trend path (will be very severe): Flash crash within 30 minutes after tomorrow's speech, first dropping to 84,000-85,000.
Break 837000 (large number of long stop-loss positions) within 24 hours
Worst path: First support: 84500
Second support: 81,000-83,000 (super pain point, starting point of the entire bull market in 2025)
If this level is breached (probability < 25%), it will directly trigger a bear market, targeting the 66,000-72,000 range (peak area in March-April 2024)

Altcoins will bleed profusely, with widespread cuts of half or even knee cuts (-50% to -70%) not being a joke. I still remain bullish on the current situation.
Set the stop-loss at 86000 (if it closes below this level tomorrow, then liquidate everything).
Target levels: Short-term 98k, medium-term 102k, extreme view 111k
Leave 15% specifically to wait for the speech tomorrow. If scenario 4 occurs, aggressively buy the dip in the 78.5k-80k range.

In summary:
As long as Powell isn't particularly hawkish tomorrow (90% probability), this bull market will continue, and we might even directly enter the craziest phase; if he becomes truly hawkish, then it will really be a horror show in December, with a drop below 80000. The only thing we can do now is to wait for Powell to speak tomorrow night at 10:00 PM (Beijing time), just patiently wait, and remain steady amidst the changes.