#美联储恢复降息进程 There are a few time points to keep an eye on this week.

On Tuesday morning at 9 AM, Powell will deliver a speech, and at 11 PM, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will testify in the House of Representatives. On Wednesday at 9:15 PM, the ADP employment data for November will be released, and on Thursday at 9:30 PM, the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 will be announced. The main event is on Friday at 11 PM — the year-on-year core PCE price index for September, the preliminary one-year inflation expectation for December, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will all be released together.

First, let's talk about the statements made by Powell and these officials. They start by either making promises to the market or pouring cold water on it. If their words are soft and release dovish signals, the market will immediately feel that liquidity is going to be loosened, and risk assets like Bitcoin typically rise as a result. However, if the tone is hard and emphasizes prioritizing inflation control, expectations will tighten immediately, and there may be short-term pressure.

ADP employment data and initial jobless claims are high-frequency indicators that best reflect the state of the economy. If the data is solid, the Federal Reserve will have the confidence to maintain high interest rates, which can easily cool market sentiment. However, if the data is clearly weak, expectations for rate cuts will immediately rise, which often serves as a boost for crypto assets.

Core PCE is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve watches most closely, and it essentially serves as a barometer for policy shifts. Data that exceeds expectations means "high interest rates will need to continue," which naturally suppresses risk appetite. If it meets or even falls below expectations, concerns about tightening can ease, and asset prices usually receive support.

This logical chain is actually quite clear: changes in data first correct the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's policies, which in turn affects global expectations of dollar liquidity, ultimately transmitting to the valuation of all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Retail investors should focus on observing K-line patterns at this time, adjusting strategies dynamically based on macro information and market sentiment. When it comes to position management and cycle layout, it's best to be cautious and avoid going all in easily.