The probability of a policy shift by the Central Bank skyrocketed on #数字货币市场回调 . Do you understand this big dump?

This morning, BTC suddenly fell below $83,000. Many people thought it was just a regular correction, but if you've been watching the derivatives market, you'll realize - this time it's different.

The market is making a frenzied bet on one thing: the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December. The current probability has surged to 80%, with expectations for January reaching as high as 90%. Sounds far away? Wrong. This is directly related to the global $19 trillion scale of yen carry trade positions.

What is carry trade? Simply put, it means borrowing low-interest yen and converting it into dollars to speculate on US stocks or buy BTC. For decades, Japan has had near-zero interest rates, making this strategy virtually risk-free arbitrage. However, once Japan starts raising interest rates, the rules of the game will be rewritten in an instant—large amounts of capital will be forced to close positions and flow back.

Experienced traders should still remember the disaster on Christmas 2022. At that time, during the December meeting of the Central Bank, the yield curve control policy was suddenly adjusted, raising the upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield from 0.25% to 0.5%. What was the result? The global market went into chaos.

Now it is again December 19, a time node when liquidity is already thin before the Christmas holiday. If a policy tightening really happens, the market will have no room to buffer.

The data has started to speak. BTC's monthly fall exceeds 20%, with $3.5 billion in ETF outflows, and more than $400 million in long positions liquidated overnight. The entire market is as fragile as glass, shattering at the slightest touch.

The situation with the Federal Reserve is even more troublesome. Powell has recently become increasingly ambiguous in his statements, refusing to discuss the direction of policy. This silence is actually more dangerous – it often signals that a storm is brewing. If Japan tightens liquidity while the US is unwilling to loosen it, BTC may face a double squeeze.

However, upon calm reflection, closing leveraged positions is just a short-term impact and does not signify the end of the world. After Japan's interest rate hike in 2024, BTC reached a new high within three months. The key is not to be carried away by emotions.

Next, keep an eye on two time points: the Central Bank's interest rate meeting in December and the update of the Federal Reserve's dot plot. Position management is more important than timing the bottom. Surviving during market fluctuations is the only way to have a chance to benefit from the next wave of rebound.

So the real question now is—are your risk controls ready?