#ETH走势分析 The Fed is now like walking on a tightrope 🎪, with cliffs on both sides: if they lower the rates, they're afraid the money will run away; if they don't lower the rates, the economy won't be able to hold up.

Last month, when the US stock market panicked, they immediately changed their tone, and the market is betting 90% that interest rates will be cut. But have you noticed? The Fed never gives a straightforward answer—those AI tech bubbles were originally supported by cheap money, and now the employment data is also starting to weaken; if interest rates are actually cut, funds will find the interest rate differential not attractive enough and will run out, causing a liquidity crunch and a chain reaction 🌊.

Let me say something heart-wrenching: lowering interest rates is not necessarily a good thing. Textbooks tell you that lowering rates stimulates loans and printing money saves the market, but that's a theory made in a vacuum. In reality, money tends to flow away—look at the past few years; in the high-interest environment in the U.S., the stock market and housing prices still rose, while here, after lowering interest rates, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks actually fell, with over a trillion RMB flowing out since 2021. The logic is simple: can the money you print outpace the speed at which funds are fleeing? If it can't, it's all in vain.

So what you are seeing now is the Fed alternating between hawkish and dovish stances, actually testing how much the market can bear. They also have to rely on the China-U.S. interest rate differential as a buffer (with the central bank lowering dollar bond interest rates in coordination), and if they misstep slightly, leveraged liquidations and market sell-offs could occur.

Don't forget that global assets are all tied together: gold and Bitcoin are now basically hedging against the ups and downs of the US stock market, oil prices also affect the dollar and gold, AI concepts link tech stocks, non-ferrous metals, and the power sector... one thread pulls a whole net🔗.

In the long run, the currency will definitely be printed more and more, but in the short term, one must be cautious of sudden liquidity withdrawal. When the market fluctuates, don’t rush to bottom fish or escape the peak; distinguish whether it’s short-term sentiment or long-term trend, and you'll have a clearer understanding.

Do you think there will really be a rate cut in December? Or will it be another round of the "data-dependent" official rhetoric? 💬 $ZEC $BAND $ASTER