Musk has recently put forward another thought-provoking observation.

This time, he’s not talking about rocket launch success rates or the progress of brain-computer interfaces—instead, he’s aiming directly at the underlying framework of the global economy.

He says that the trajectory of the economy over the next decade will essentially be determined by the interplay of three variables: explosive AI productivity, the collapse of demographic structures, and an out-of-control debt spiral.

Sounds grandiose? But if you think about it, there are deadly contradictions behind each variable.

**Let’s start with AI.**

The jump from GPT-3 to GPT-5 isn’t just a simple model iteration—it’s a rewrite of the production function itself. What drove economic growth in the past? Population multiplied by working hours. Now? AI is taking over a huge amount of cognitive labor, which means the logic of growth may completely decouple from the old “headcount × work hours” framework.

Supply is skyrocketing.

**But what about demand? It’s quietly withering.**

Low birth rates aren’t just a problem for one country—they’re a global risk. There are fewer young people, willingness to consume is declining, and the drive for innovation is waning. On one side, AI is pushing production efficiency to the extreme; on the other, there’s no one to buy the products—that’s the real structural split.

**Even more dangerous is the debt time bomb.**

With weak demand and policy tools exhausted, US debt is still ballooning. Interest expenses are soaring. So what’s the solution? Mild inflation becomes the only “graceful exit”—quietly diluting debt through currency depreciation. It sounds gentle, but at its core, it’s a slow bleed.

**So how do we break the deadlock?**

Musk offers two directions—one on Earth, and one in space:

Ground battle: use AI and robotics to fill the labor gap and drive marginal costs to the limit;
Space battle: expand the growth frontier from Earth to Mars, using breakthroughs in the physical realm to offset contraction in the economic realm.

Does this sound like science fiction? But don’t forget—ten years ago, who would have thought a private company could recover rockets, or that brain-computer interfaces could let paralyzed patients type?

The global economy may be standing at the threshold of a new cycle. This time, technology is no longer just a supporting actor—it’s the dominant force rewriting the rules of the game.