#美联储重启降息步伐 To be honest, I don't think BTC will be able to reclaim 102,000 within this year. The 100,000 level is basically a solid resistance now. Even if there’s a short-term spike above it and it lingers on the daily chart for a few days, can it really hold for a week? I highly doubt it.

Looking down, the probability of breaking below 80,000 isn’t high either; the 77,000 to 79,000 zone should hold. So the current strategy is very clear—just play the range by selling high and buying low, don’t think about any grand long-term moves.

January next year is a key time window. The 90,000–94,000 range will become the main battlefield, with bulls and bears likely to be stuck in a stalemate there for a long time. The market needs to rebuild liquidity in this zone to prepare for the next big directional move. December will most likely close with a doji candlestick—think about it, November dropped straight from 110,000 to 80,000, almost a 30,000-point (about 30%) pullback, which is roughly as severe as the single-day drop on 10/11. After such a large-scale drop, hoping for a V-shaped recovery? Not happening—this isn’t some small-cap altcoin you can pump at will.

What about after February? Personally, I think with the backdrop of quarterly liquidity shortages, the market will continue to consolidate. If there’s still no new high or return to the upper range by June next year, then June–July becomes a super critical juncture—this will decide whether BTC’s Fibonacci time zones from previous cycles will see a reversal. We’re likely in a pivot zone now; after this, a whole new bullish or bearish trend will emerge.

From my personal perspective, factoring in the variable of a new Fed chair taking office in June next year, I’m actually quite optimistic that a violent rally could kick off a new bull market, with the long-standing target of 150,000. But before that, up until June next year, the main theme will be consolidation. I estimate the range will be between 77,000 and 110,000 (being more aggressive, it might just grind between 80,000 and 100,000, and might not even reach 100,000).

As long as you’re not greedy and can endure in this range long enough, you should be able to break even. Whether you can make big profits is hard to say, but as long as you control your greed, you definitely won’t lose (not counting fees and funding rates).

$BTC