Since the end of October, global risk assets haven’t had a moment’s peace. While the AI boom has yet to deliver clear results, liquidity has already become the most painful variable right now.

Over the next month, several major events are lined up: The Fed meets on December 11—will they cut rates? By how much? Will they expand the balance sheet? Then comes the nonfarm payrolls report on the 16th and the CPI data on the 18th. The most exciting is the 19th—will the Bank of Japan raise rates? Last year’s shock is still fresh in our minds; will it happen again this year? There’s also the nomination of the new Fed chair, whose stance will directly determine the next moves.

Short term? It’s really hard to say. A hawkish rate cut isn’t out of the question, and the Bank of Japan could shake things up at any moment. But looking further out, the medium-term direction is actually pretty clear—it will get more accommodative. The new chair nomination and balance sheet expansion expectations are both out there.

Of course, too much of anything is never good. If the dovish moves are too aggressive, it could backfire. Sometimes with markets, the real risk is going too far.