#美联储重启降息步伐 This week's calendar needs to be watched even more closely than the candlestick charts.

2025 will enter the most intensive period of macro data releases, with five central banks taking the stage one after another. Every move could become a turning point for capital flows.

The main event is early Thursday morning:
At 3:00 AM, the FOMC interest rate decision will be announced, along with updated economic projections.
At 3:30, Powell will hold a press conference.

The market has already given its answer—the probability of a rate cut is approaching 90%. But what really keeps people on edge isn’t the result itself, but how the dot plot is drawn and what Powell will actually say. Historically, there have been too many instances of the market swinging in the opposite direction after expectations are realized.

During the same period, the central banks of Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and the UK will also make statements one after another. The safe-haven instincts of Swiss capital, Australia’s commodity currency characteristics, and Bailey’s sense of nuance in his speech—every detail is worth pondering.

At times like these, survival is more important than yield. Watch the market less, remember more key time points.

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