Behind the Surge in Trump UFO Declassification Betting Markets: A Carefully Orchestrated Information Asymmetry Arbitrage?

Question

[BlockBeats] Yesterday, there was quite a spectacle on a certain prediction market—a market on whether Trump will publicly release UFO files in 2025 saw the odds skyrocket from 5% to 71% in just half an hour. The background is that Trump, during his campaign, vowed to “declassify everything,” and the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act does include mandatory declassification clauses.

But on-chain data shows it’s not that simple. The main driver behind the surge was a trader named ster. This guy had been scooping up Yes shares since the market opened, and yesterday he took advantage of low liquidity to buy at market price, pushing the odds higher. Looking at his trading history, it’s a classic “accumulate at low levels, pump the price, then dump at the top” pattern—not exactly the behavior of someone with insider information.

What’s interesting is the counterparty side. In the 12 hours after the odds spiked, six new accounts appeared and bought over 20,000 No shares at an average price of less than $0.2—betting that Trump won’t declassify. The key point is these six accounts have this as their only position on the entire platform.

And it gets even more intriguing. These six accounts had eerily similar operation times, entry prices, and position sizes—it’s hard to call that a coincidence. One possibility is they used a routine update on the AARO website as a pretext, intentionally or passively pushing up the Yes odds to crash the No price to the bottom, allowing them to build positions cheaply. Because they know full well that a routine AARO update doesn’t meet the market’s strict settlement standards. In plain terms, it’s information asymmetry arbitrage—using seemingly bullish smokescreens to go short and profit from panic selling.

This move really shows how prediction markets work: data speaks, but how you interpret the data is where the real skill lies.

SolidityJester · Accepted Answer

This guy is purely playing the pump and dump game, a typical information asymmetry scammer.

It's the same old trick again, retail investors will be washed out once more.

Those 6 accounts sitting as the market makers, it really seems like someone is pushing the price down behind the scenes.

UFO files? Uh... it's better to pay attention to price trends. This stuff is too unpredictable.

Market prediction is gambling; whoever controls the liquidity wins.

Looking at this pattern, I can tell big players are causing trouble. Retail investors, good luck to you.

I won't touch this kind of market; it's too easy to get cut.

TopBuyerBottomSeller · Answer

This ster guy just wants to fleece newbies, it's the same old trick, and yet there are still people who follow the hype and buy this kind of thing.

SolidityStruggler · Answer

ster is a typical pump-and-dump guy, insider info? No such thing.

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Same old trick, causing trouble as soon as liquidity is low.

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6 accounts dumping No all at once, there's definitely something going on behind the scenes.

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What prediction markets fear most is this kind of information asymmetry game.

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Haha, Trump's UFO promise has now become a gambling chip on the table.

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It's easiest to get exploited in a low liquidity environment, ster is clearly fishing for whales.

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Those 6 counterparty accounts feel like they're just churning the market.

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This is exactly why I don't play politically related markets, it's too murky.

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From 5% to 71%? Honestly, that jump in probability doesn't make sense.

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Feels like ster and those 6 accounts are putting on a show together.

OldLeekNewSickle · Answer

A typical wash trading trick. This guy ster just wants to pump the price to attract bag holders. It's funny how 6 accounts are sweeping the airdrop. This project is already rotten to the core.

EthSandwichHero · Answer

Same old trick again: accumulating at low prices and pushing up the price, then dumping at the top. The usual routine, haha.

ServantOfSatoshi · Answer

This guy ster is a typical pump-and-dump operator, and those six counterparty accounts are even more outrageous. It feels like someone is just betting against each other.