84% chance of a rate cut? The market has already climaxed ahead of time, but the real opportunity lies in the “second reaction”

Right now, the entire market is talking about a 25BP rate cut, and prices have already moved up in anticipation. But experienced traders know: on the day good news is announced, prices often don’t rise as expected—sometimes they “pump first, then dump.”

So my view on the rate cut is: the market won’t take off immediately; instead, there will be a shakeout before a rally.

Why do I say this?
Because the market has already priced in the rate cut. The actual announcement isn’t a surprise—it’s a “finally, it happened.” What really determines the trend is Powell’s tone—if his language is dovish enough, the market will have a second surge; if he’s more cautious, we’ll see a short-term panic dip. But either way, as long as the rate-cutting cycle is confirmed to begin, the medium-term trend will be bullish.

My strategy is as follows:
① Don’t gamble on the announcement moment—the market will be extremely volatile, and retail investors can easily get whipsawed.
② Focus on the second move—it’s safer to get in after the initial volatility settles.
③ Watch high-momentum sectors—AI, platform tokens, and large caps are likely to outperform small-cap coins.
④ Manage your position size—a rate cut is positive, but it’s not a reason to go all-in.

Don’t get too excited on rate cut day; watch the trend after the cut. Opportunities always appear after the emotional wave subsides. #美联储降息预测