There’s a crucial meeting in the early hours of December 11, but if you’re only focusing on a 25 basis point rate cut, you’re missing the bigger picture.

The market has already priced that in. What’s really worth pondering are two other points:

How fierce is the internal disagreement within the committee? The number of dissenting votes can reveal a lot—more dissent means deeper divisions, and future policy could change at any time.

How will Powell phrase his remarks? Will he reassure the market, or leave things ambiguous to keep his options open? This directly determines the next steps.

To put it plainly, the rate cut is already a given; the real variables affecting market trends are the divisions and Powell’s speech.

From a trading perspective: More dissenting votes could create short-term pressure; if Powell signals a dovish stance, the market rally could continue. The worst-case scenario is “no rate cut,” in which case be prepared for increased volatility.

Don’t rush to bet on a direction. Wait for this wave of sentiment to play out—once it’s over, the trend will naturally become clear.