"10U Warlords" collectively surge, betting that Trump will disregard the law and "not release" the Epstein files

On December 8, the Polymarket prediction market regarding “Will Trump publicly release the Epstein files before December 19/December 31?” is currently caught in a tug-of-war between clear legal requirements and cautious market expectations. Trump signed the “Epstein Files Transparency Act” on November 19, which explicitly requires the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release all unclassified files within 30 days of signing. This means the statutory deadline for file release is December 19. However, despite the legal requirement for the files to be released by the 19th of this month, the market probability for “December 19 release” is hovering at only around 56%, and the probability for “release before December 31” is just 70%. This uncertainty primarily stems from the extremely strict settlement rules for this market: the ruling requires the files to be proactively and officially published by an executive agency via official websites, press releases, etc., and the release must include substantial content related to Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities. Files unsealed by a federal court, files released by Congress, or metadata without substantive content do not qualify. The market is generally concerned that, while following the act, the DOJ must redact parts of the files involving victims and personal identification information. This is a time-consuming process that could trigger legal disputes, and any challenges to the extent of redactions could result in the files not being released to the public in accordance with the settlement rules by the statutory deadline, leading the market to settle as “No.” In this environment of uncertainty, three traders holding “No” shares are particularly noteworthy, and their trading styles indicate strong conviction: 0xtherealbatman holds $4,000 in December 19 “No” shares at an average price of 44c, with a historical average position size of less than $10. ohawaffle holds $4,900 in December 19 “No” shares at an average price of 43c, with a historical average position size of $60. VT2025 holds nearly $2,000 in December 31 “No” shares at an average price of 26c, with a historical average position size of $50. All three traders have over 90% of their positions concentrated in these bets, focusing on the belief that the files will not be released within 2025, or the released files will not meet the settlement rules of the market.