#比特币对比代币化黄金 $ZEC $ETH $BNB Rate Cut Expectations vs. Powell’s Stance: The Real Market Turning Point Is Here

The Fed’s move in the early hours of Thursday deserves close attention. On the surface, it’s a 25 basis point rate cut, but the story behind it is far from simple.

⏰ Timeline:
Thursday 3:00 AM - Fed interest rate decision announced
Thursday 3:30 AM - Powell holds press conference

Why is there reason to believe policy will lean toward caution? Three key data points are clear:

1. Inflation hasn’t truly cooled—Core PCE is still stuck at 2.8%, and Core CPI fluctuates between 3.1% and 3.3%, still some distance from the 2% target. Turning to easing prematurely under these circumstances would mean squandering previous efforts.

2. The “ceiling” on rates—After the cut, rates are expected to fall into the 3.75%-4.0% range. Any further drop would break through the line of "restrictive rates," and the Fed has made it clear they don’t want to create a window for inflation to rebound.

3. The economy remains resilient—GDP growth is holding at 1.2%-1.6%, and the job market is stable. The Fed actually has plenty of patience.

💥 Market Logic Breakdown:
A rate cut is often a signal that "all the bad news is out." The crypto market may spike in the short term due to a liquidity boost, but could then face a deep correction. Don’t be fooled by the illusion of consecutive gains—the true turning point depends on Powell’s statements.

📌 Strategies for Three Types of Investors:

• Aggressive players: Consider shorting at the rebound highs, prepare 2-5x positions, and set stop-losses at key resistance levels.

• Conservative players: Reduce positions to light exposure and hold cash, don’t chase the rally. Wait for a full correction before considering entry.

• Long-term holders: Ignore the noise of short-term volatility, focus on high-prosperity sectors, and build up for next year’s major cycle.

✨ Larger Time Frame:
The real period of abundant liquidity may not arrive until the second half of 2026—after the new administration takes office, Fed policy could shift, global capital allocation will be readjusted, and the crypto market could see the start of a 3-5 year major cycle.

This current adjustment is essentially preparing for the next major move. The details of the policy shift will emerge in the early hours of Thursday—make sure to watch that press conference closely.