#ETH走势分析 Have you noticed: lately, $BTC’s price action has completely decoupled from the US stock market and global M2?

It looks strange, but the reasons are actually quite straightforward:

**The first issue is the US stock market.** This year’s gains have been almost entirely monopolized by the AI narrative—tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft are dominating. Funds are flowing into AI, not piling into high-risk assets, so the US stock market ≠ crypto market; that logic no longer holds.

**The second issue is the direction of M2.** Global liquidity has clearly slowed down; money isn’t pouring into crypto, but rather into US tech stocks, treasuries, and money market funds. $BTC can’t keep up with M2 growth, so it’s falling behind.

**The third issue is the variable from Japan.** The unwinding of yen carry trades has triggered a chain reaction, causing a real squeeze in global liquidity. Highly volatile assets get hit first, and Bitcoin bears the brunt.

**The fourth is market sentiment.** Expectations of an early bear market post-halving have already been priced in, so early selling pressure has reinforced BTC’s independent price trend.

So what should you do now?

Abandon old strategies. $BTC has shifted from a pure liquidity play to a competition for structural capital flows. Tracking where the money goes is now more important than watching the overall market direction.

Focus on two things: first, sectors with real incremental growth—AI chains, computing power, data, and other infrastructure; second, assets at the bottom but showing reversal signals—don’t blindly bottom-fish.

Most importantly, trade the swings and mind the timing. In this tightening environment, high-volatility assets are bound to experience repeated shakeouts. Capture the range, watch key events, and follow the waves—that’s how you survive.

Don’t just stick to the old logic; follow the capital flows to seize structural opportunities, keep your timing steady, and you’ll naturally profit when the big cycle turns.