A rather crucial data point will be released at midnight tonight—the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectation for November. Last time, it was 3.24%. This number might seem insignificant, but it has a considerable impact on gold’s trajectory, and consequently, on assets like silver and crude oil as well.

Looking at two possible directions:

If the inflation expectation data jumps, the market will think the Fed has to keep up high interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index will most likely be pushed higher. For a non-yielding asset like gold, higher holding costs could trigger a short-term sell-off. If gold fails to hold key levels, it could lead to a chain reaction of further selling.

On the other hand, if the inflation expectation data drops, expectations for rate cuts next year will rise, making Treasury yields and the dollar likely to weaken. At that point, gold’s inflation-hedging properties and sensitivity to interest rates will both come into play, potentially kicking off a new round of gains. If trading volume also increases, the chance of breaking through upper resistance levels becomes even higher.

One more detail not to overlook: gold is the bellwether for the entire precious metals sector. When it moves, silver definitely follows, and silver’s volatility is typically even more pronounced than gold’s. After tonight’s data is released, silver’s swings could be even more dramatic.

For the crypto market, this kind of macro data is also worth watching, since the dollar’s movement and risk-off sentiment will indirectly affect the performance of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.