#ETH走势分析 From 30,000 to 10 million, the biggest lesson can be summed up in one word: simplicity.

Many people hustle in the crypto space for years, piling up strategies and filling their screens with indicators, only to end up losing money and leaving the market. Later, I realized a simple truth—the most effective way to make money is often the most straightforward one.

The crypto market is like this: endless opportunities, but you can't catch them all due to greed. You want to profit from the rise, the pullback, and the breakout, but in the end, you get nothing and just get chopped up by the market's swings. I set a hard rule for myself: only trade N-shaped breakouts. Ignore the head and tail, just focus on the meatiest part of the move.

What is an N-shaped breakout? It's actually the clearest trend pattern—an upward surge (vertical line) → pullback and consolidation (diagonal line) → a second breakout with volume, surpassing the previous high (second vertical line). It might sound complex, but the logic is simple: the main players finish accumulating, shake out the retail traders, then quickly push up the price. All you have to do is wait for the moment after the pullback doesn't make a new low and volume starts to pick up again.

How do you use the N-shape for compounding gains? Here’s the breakdown:

Step one: screen for targets. Only look at coins whose daily candles are above the 20-day moving average, ensuring the overall trend isn’t against you. It’s like seeking opportunities only on the up escalator, not fishing on the down one.

Step two: wait for an entry signal. When price pulls back to previous support (such as the 50% retracement of the first wave up), and you see a small bullish candle with low volume, that’s your test signal. No need to go all in—start with 1/3 position to test the waters.

Step three: add to your position. When volume breaks out above the previous high, that’s when confidence is highest—add the remaining 2/3 of your position. Set your stop loss at the lowest point of the breakout candle—clear and simple.

Step four: exit. When profit reaches 10%, reduce your position by half, then set a trailing stop for the rest to ride the trend. This way you lock in profits and won’t miss big moves.

Sounds perfect, right? So why do most people still lose money? Because risk control trips up 80% of traders.

My iron rules for risk control are just three: never let a single loss exceed 2% of your total capital; if there’s no N-shaped opportunity, stay in cash—never trade choppy markets; withdraw 50% of profits each month to make sure your principal is always safe. It all sounds like common sense, but those who actually stick to it are less than one in ten thousand.

Why can’t most people do it? Simply put, they can’t sit still. The moment they have money, they want to act. When they see a price rise, they want to chase; when it drops, they want to catch the bottom. The result is frequent trading and frequent stop losses—fees and slippage will eat you alive. In my system, I’m in cash 80% of the time. I spend one hour a day watching the charts, the rest of the time I shut down and don’t look.

It sounds counterintuitive, right? But here’s the truth—big money isn’t made by trading all the time, but by waiting. Real high-confidence setups only come a few times a year. Those who are always all-in, always switching coins, are just gambling on frequency. The ones who lose the fastest are never the ones who wait.

The biggest trap in crypto is mistaking luck for skill. Those who make a quick fortune are often the first to blow up. Only when you replace intuition with a system, and discipline your greed, will the market truly open its doors to you.

This method isn’t flashy, but it took me from 30,000 to 10 million. There’s no magic—just making fewer mistakes and waiting for better opportunities. If you want to survive and thrive in this market, give this approach a try. No hype, no empty promises—the market is just this cruel and fair.