This week in global markets can be summed up in one sentence: Just after a 7.6-magnitude earthquake hit Japan, the yen immediately dropped to 156. The Bank of Japan was planning to raise interest rates, but after the earthquake, they quickly changed their tune—disaster relief takes priority, and monetary policy will be put on the back burner for now.

On the other side, the Fed’s rate meeting this week is basically a done deal—they’re set to cut rates by 25 basis points. But the real question is what Powell will say. The market isn’t focused on whether there will be a cut, but on whether he’ll trot out his “data-dependent” rhetoric again after the cut.

If his comments are dovish this time, hinting at more room for rate cuts ahead, risk assets will probably have a field day. But if he starts playing it safe again, emphasizing “taking it one step at a time,” market sentiment could slip back into anxiety mode.

This week’s rhythm will likely go like this: US stocks take a dip on Monday as a sentiment test, the Fed decision comes out on Wednesday and the whole world waits to see what Powell says, then Friday we watch the market reaction—either it rallies or people start complaining. Next week, the Bank of Japan will probably continue to stall, and the yen is likely to stay weak.

On the crypto side, the short-term moves of major coins like BTC, ZEC, and LUNA also depend on the Fed’s stance. Meanwhile, the meme coins riding the hype on the Ethereum chain have seen lower gas fees lately, which could be worth watching, but remember these are extremely volatile—don’t get carried away.

In short, the rate cut is certain, but what the market really wants is expectation management. If Powell stays vague, Wall Street will probably need a collective drink to decompress.