To be honest, my experience in the crypto market over the past few years has probably been even more dramatic than most people imagine. I started out just testing the waters with 5,000 yuan, and now my account assets have surpassed 50 million. Looking back on this journey, there are indeed some insights worth sharing.

When it comes to fund management, I’ve always been extremely rigid—I never use more than one-fifth of my total capital at any time. This means that even if a single trade goes completely south, I still have 80% of my ammunition left to reposition. More importantly, I set a hard rule for myself: if any single trade loses 10%, I must exit, no matter how tempting the market looks at that moment. If you do the math, even if I hit five losing trades in a row, my total loss is only half my position, but as long as I catch the right trend once, the gains usually cover all previous losses.

As for timing entry points, I’ve found that the dumbest thing is trying to guess the bottom. When the market is falling, no one knows where it will stop. What I do now is wait for a confirmed trend reversal, then build my position in batches during pullbacks. This strategy might miss the absolute bottom, but it offers a higher margin of safety—at least you’re not stuck as soon as you enter.

A hard-earned lesson about coin selection: don’t touch coins that have surged sharply in the short term, whether they’re blue chips or small caps. Those coins that double in a few days can crash just as fiercely. If you get stuck, it might take months to break even. Instead of chasing such excitement, it’s better to look for assets that rise steadily.

On the technical side, I mainly look at the MACD. When the DIF and DEA lines form a golden cross below the zero axis and move upward through the zero line, that’s generally a reliable buy signal. Conversely, if they form a dead cross above the zero axis and head downward, I’ll decisively reduce my position, even if it means missing out on some potential gains. Protecting profits is more important than trying to exit at the perfect point.

A word of warning about averaging down: adding to a losing position is just doubling down on a mistake. The right approach is to admit defeat and cut losses when you’re down; only consider adding to a position when you’re already in profit. This goes against human nature, but it really helps avoid disastrous losses.

Volume is another dimension I watch closely. When a coin suddenly spikes in volume while at a low range—as if a sleeping giant has awakened—it often signals the start of a trending move. Of course, this needs to be judged in combination with candlestick patterns and moving averages.

Speaking of moving averages, I like to watch the daily, 30-day, 84-day, and 120-day lines at the same time. The direction these lines are turning generally tells you what stage the market is in. When they’re in a bullish alignment, I can be more aggressive; when they’re in a bearish alignment, I just sit on the sidelines. Simple but effective.

In crypto, luck definitely plays a role, but in the long run, it’s those who are disciplined and know risk control who survive. The market will always be there, but if your principal is gone, it’s really gone for good.