BTC took quite a hit this time. Remember early October? The price surged to an all-time high of $126,250, but the good times didn’t last long as selling pressure kept coming in waves. On November 18, the $90,000 support line was broken—something that hadn't happened in nearly seven months. Things got even worse on December 1, with an 8% intraday plunge, bottoming out at $83,786. Crunch the numbers, that's over a 30% retracement from the peak, and all the gains since 2025? Gone.

Now, the price is sluggishly moving between $86,000 and $89,000, with no sign of a rebound.

Let’s talk technicals. After that spike on October 6, the red line started moving in sync with the blue and green lines. Although the price hit new highs, the MVRV never broke above the previous high of 2.42—a classic major divergence signal. For those familiar with the “three-line convergence” theory, you know it’s based on the four-year bull-bear cycle. When a divergence appears, it basically signals the end of the trend.

The current movement of the red line is indeed following the historical cycle’s rhythm, converging toward the blue and green lines.

Looking ahead? If this trajectory holds, by December 31, the MVRV will most likely fall within the 1.51–1.66 range. Using the current realized price (RP), that puts BTC somewhere between $85,000 and $94,000. Moving into 2026, from January to May, the MVRV could fluctuate in a wide range between 1.27 and 1.85, which corresponds to a BTC price of about $71,000 to $100,000.

Of course, technicals aside, the market always has a mind of its own.