There’s basically no suspense left for this Fed meeting. At 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 86.2%. Jinshi Data directly gives an expected rate of 3.75%, so it’s pretty much a sure thing.

What’s even more noteworthy is that global central banks have been very active recently—Canada, Australia, and Switzerland will all announce rate decisions in succession, but the biggest uncertainty lies with Japan. Will the Bank of Japan raise rates on December 19? The market is still debating this, and Jinshi hasn’t posted an expected value, which shows there’s a lot of disagreement. These two events are only 9 days apart, so market volatility could be quite intense.

Back to BTC price action. After hitting a local low of 80,600 on November 21, it rebounded all the way to 93,000—an increase of almost 15%. Then it naturally pulled back and stabilized near 84,000, surged again to 94,100, and is currently consolidating around the 87,700 level. The technicals are clear—higher lows and higher highs, a classic uptrend channel.

Ahead of the rate cut, the strategy could be to consider going long near previous lows, targeting the 95,000 to 98,000 range. Of course, keep a close eye on what happens in Japan to avoid being caught off guard by any sudden news.