Analysts warned about the start of the "crypto winter": the bottom is expected at the level of $56 000 - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, future

# Analysts have warned of the start of “crypto winter”: a bottom is expected at the level of $56 000

The growth in demand for the first cryptocurrency has slowed down, which may indicate a transition to a bearish market. These conclusions were reached by analysts at CryptoQuant.

According to experts' forecasts, the bottom will form near the realized price — around $56 000. The dip from the historical maximum in this case will be 55%. The intermediate support level is at $70 000.

Source: CryptoQuant.Analysts noted that since 2023, the industry has experienced three major waves of activity. The drivers have been the launch of spot ETFs in the US, the results of the American elections, and the growth of corporate treasuries.

Since the beginning of October 2025, demand indicators have fallen below trend values. According to experts, the main volume of purchases in the current cycle has already been realized, which deprived the price of key support.

Institutional investors have shifted to reducing their positions. In the fourth quarter of 2025, American spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers, liquidating 24,000 BTC. This contrasts with active accumulation at the end of 2024.

Addresses with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC also show a trend below the trend. A similar situation was observed at the end of 2021 before the onset of the “crypto winter.”

The derivatives market confirms a decrease in risk appetite. Funding rates have fallen to December 2023 lows. The price of the first cryptocurrency has dropped below the 365-day moving average. Historically, this level separates bullish and bearish phases.

CryptoQuant emphasized that Bitcoin's four-year cycles depend on demand expansion and contraction, rather than halving.

Opinion: Bitcoin network is “cooling down”

The Bitcoin market has transitioned into a bearish phase, according to analyst CryptoQuant under the nickname GugaOnChain. Technical indicators and a decrease in network activity signal a change in trend.

Bitcoin Network Cools Down as Confirmation of the Current Moment

“Historically, when highly active addresses shrink, it signals retreat by traders and institutions, reinforcing the transition into quiet accumulation phases that precede future volatility.” – By @GugaOnChain pic.twitter.com/vTw3GYiI3e

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 22, 2025

The expert noted that the 30-day moving average has fallen below the 365-day moving average by 0.52%. The bearish trend is also confirmed by the Bull-Bear indicator.

The consecutive decrease in active addresses indicates an outflow of speculators and a dip in trading interest.

The network slowdown is traced through the 7-day moving average of key metrics:

• number of transactions: dipped from ~460,000 to ~438,000;
• commissions: the total volume decreased from ~$233 000 to ~$230 000;
• highly active addresses: the metric decreased from 43,300 to 41,500. Institutions and other large players have entered a “defensive” and accumulation phase.

Comparing the current data with the indicators of 2018, GugaOnChain identified identical patterns: a dip in transactional activity, low fees, and the departure of “whales”.

The difference lies in the size of the user base: 800,000 active participants now compared to 600,000 in the previous cycle. This indicates greater maturity of the network. The expert summarized that such quiet periods often serve as a precursor to a surge in volatility.

It is worth noting that the Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, has predicted the end of the bull cycle in 2026.