$ETH Basic situation evaluation: Is it a "bottom formation" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH rose near $2,962, indicating strong buying demand from long positions and a short contract liquidation market in that area.
• Indicator correction requirements: KDJ for 15 minutes/1 hour in an oversold condition at low levels. Technically, it requires a bullish rebound once to absorb the deviation resulting from the sharp drop in the morning.
• Direction determination: a rebound rather than a reversal. The overall trend on the four-hour and daily levels is still leaning towards downward correction. Therefore, the following strategy is: reopening sell positions at high levels > speculating on buying at the support level.
A sell order has been placed at the top again (, a key strategy that aligns with the medium-term trend ).
The next ideal point will move slightly downward:
• First pressure zone: $3,010 - $3,025 ( hourly Bollinger average ).
• Second pressure zone: $3,040 - $3,055 ( near the morning low ).
• If the price rises near $3,025 and upper shadows appear, a new sell position can be entered (. The position size can be set to half of the previous size ).
• Stop loss: Set it at $3,075 (. The stop loss should be placed before breaking the previous high ).
• Taking profits: We return once again to the area of heavy buy liquidation at $2,950.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weights Before Christmas
• 24-hour danger: If it drops below $2,950, it will trigger the liquidation of a $850 million buy order that we calculated earlier. At that time, the market will show a vertical drop, directly towards $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, the "downward correction" behavior often occurs before Christmas (23-24) and then rises.
Basic monitoring: searching for the "golden pit"
Liquidity hunting (Long entry with high win rate)
• Ideal entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * The area of heavy explosion: The first defense line we mentioned earlier is only $2,950. The true final defense line for the bulls and the area of heavy explosion is located near $2,880 - $2,900.
• Support level on the daily frame: Based on the daily candlestick chart, the lower limit of the Bollinger band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support near $2,880.
• Practical advice: Do not enter direct orders, but wait for the price to quickly pull back and exceed $2,950, and when it reaches around $2,900 with a rapid decrease in volume, or even if a long lower shadow appears for 15 minutes, enter the market at market price.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 ( If it drops below the previous low, the Christmas market will essentially announce its end ).
• Target Level: Review $3,050.
Confirmation of the reversal ( the right side is safe to buy )
• Confirmation of entry level: $3,035 - $3,045 ( after stabilization )
• Logic: * Breaking the resistance: The starting point of this downward wave is $3,060. If the price manages to reclaim $3,030 and hold at the one-hour level, this indicates that the decline was a "Bear Trap (".
• Start of the Christmas movement: stability here usually refers to the official start of the Christmas movement, aiming directly towards $3,300.
• Stop Loss: $2,990.
• Target: $3,200 - $3,350.