#数字资产市场洞察 The scene from 2020 is still in my mind. Gold first surged to historical highs, but Bitcoin struggled below its previous highs. What happened next? As the gold rally slowed, Bitcoin began that crazy pump.



Now, the market seems to be using the same script again.

Gold has reached a new high today, rising more than 70%. During the same period, Bitcoin was only $88,000, having dropped 30% from its peak in October. It's a bit heartbreaking, isn't it?

Looking at this year's macro environment makes it clear - the Federal Reserve has already injected liquidity 3 times, and the Treasury is still spending $40 billion per month to buy government bonds, the money globally is rapidly increasing, and liquidity is flowing back.

But the question arises: where did all this money go? History gives us the answer. Like the previous two cycles, the money first went into gold.

However, from the data, it seems that gold is already a bit overdrawn, and the space for further short-term gains is narrowing. The real turning point is: once funds move away from gold and start looking for the next target, how fierce will Bitcoin's reaction be? Just imagine and you'll know.

The numbers can really tell the story—gold has a market value of about 31 trillion dollars, while Bitcoin is only 1.75 trillion. Even if Bitcoin only reaches 30% of gold's market value in the next 5 years, its price could be around 450,000 dollars.

History does not copy and paste, but it always rhymes. Will this time break the norm?
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Ramen_Until_Richvip
· 11h ago
I believe in the saying that history rhymes, but I am afraid that this time it is another case of the wolf coming.
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VCsSuckMyLiquidityvip
· 11h ago
I'm tired of hearing this historical rhyming theory, but this time the logic of gold overdraft really has some substance. Are we talking about the 2020 story again? Money flows into gold and then into Bitcoin, it sounds like a mechanical law... but when has the market ever been so obedient? I can't really believe that $450,000 number, but the capital rotation is indeed worth watching. Gold rises by 70%, while Bitcoin is still falling, it's indeed frustrating, but this is also part of history, right? Wait, is the macro environment really the same as in 2020? The details are quite different. The market capitalization of Bitcoin is so much less than gold, the gap is so large that it actually sparks imagination... it just depends on when the capital will shift. Liquidity return is key, but it's really hard to say where it will return to. I'm half-convinced by this logic, but the market will always provide the answers.
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SchrodingerProfitvip
· 11h ago
What should I do if I overdraw gold? I'm just waiting for that moment when the funds are moved.
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WalletWhisperervip
· 11h ago
ngl the liquidity rotation thesis hits different when you actually map the wallet clustering data... that 31t to 1.75t arbitrage gap isn't a coincidence, it's basically screaming market inefficiency
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SorryRugPulledvip
· 11h ago
I've heard this historical rhyme about trapping so many times that my ears are getting calloused, but I still get played for suckers every time.
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