2025-12-25 19:44:38

Most investors are chasing the wrong metric when evaluating AI working capital. EBITDA is just noise—what actually matters is what's sitting on the balance sheet.

Here's the real issue: we're swimming in trillions of private credit built on "assets" that nobody's properly audited. When you strip away the hype, there's a brutal gap between what people think those assets are worth and what they actually worth.

The inventory becomes everything. Right now, we've got this widening chasm between fantasy valuations and reality—and that's where the real risk lives. It's not about operational efficiency or cash flow anymore. It's about whether those asset piles hold up under scrutiny or collapse like a house of cards.

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LiquidationKing

· 14h ago

Basically, everyone is playing the numbers game. What about real assets? No one dares to look. Assets are piling up like mountains, but without audits. This thing will blow up sooner or later. That EBITDA approach should have been abandoned long ago. Now it's all about whether the balance sheet can hold up. The valuations of private equity credit instruments are all fabricated; a liquidation round will reveal the truth. The gap between book assets and actual value is the fuse for the next wave of explosions.

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PaperHandSister

· 14h ago

That's right, the numbers these institutions hype are really outrageous. I've been annoyed by this for a long time. No one takes asset auditing seriously at all, and when it all collapses, no one will know where the problem originated.

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GasWrangler

· 14h ago

ngl this is just balance sheet theater with extra steps. empirically proven that most "assets" can't withstand basic audit scrutiny... if you actually analyze the data instead of chasing narratives

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UncleLiquidation

· 14h ago

There's nothing wrong with that; right now, assets that can't be seen or touched are piling up on the ledger. The private credit game has been rotten for a long time; only on the day of liquidation will we know who was swimming naked. The balance sheet is the true eye-opener; EBITDA is just a smokescreen. The asset audit is a huge loophole that could blow up sooner or later.

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MidnightGenesis

· 14h ago

On-chain data has long been telling us this story: the private credit "assets" can't withstand reverse engineering audits. As expected, it's another old story of valuation myths versus on-chain reality. From a code perspective, the collateralization ratios of these assets are generally inflated, and the contract parameters deployed late at night have long been exposed. Where is the problem? Most people are still focusing on EBITDA, an illusion, while the balance sheet is the true mirror. Whether the asset list can withstand stress testing is the key. Based on past experience, once an institution actually audits these things, it could get quite ugly.

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ThesisInvestor

· 14h ago

Basically, the illusionary valuation is doomed to fail. The balance sheet is the real gold and silver; this has been clear for a long time. It's another wake-up call before the next round of harvesting. Asset audits are truly Schrödinger's assets; in the end, they all have to collapse.

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