Walking along the Financial Street, watching the scene of young people gathering in the trading hall, I always think of the grandma and grandpa fighting over gold bars during the 2007 gold rush, and the nephew staying up late watching the Ethereum price in 2021—times change, but the market script seems to keep repeating.

Recently, this wave of market行情确实让人兴奋。Gold broke through to $3,200 per ounce, and Bitcoin surged 20% in a single week. Many people are starting to tout the "double bull market" profit-making theory. But behind this, there's a problem that many overlook: the current prices have actually long absorbed the expectations.

Let's look at the driving force behind this gold rally. Over the past three years, global central banks haven't stopped buying—China alone increased its gold holdings by 2,290 tons in one quarter. Coupled with the safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, gold prices have had buying support. But the problem is, gold prices have risen too rapidly. Usually, gold's annualized volatility is around 15%, while Bitcoin's daily fluctuation can reach 3.88%. The risk levels of the two are simply not in the same league. Even some traditional financial institutions have recently started to look at this wave of行情 with caution.

On the Bitcoin side, it's even more painful. The Federal Reserve hasn't even officially started a rate-cut cycle, yet Bitcoin has already risen 40%. The entire logic is built on "loose monetary expectations" and ETF fund speculation. But the lesson was already learned in 2017 when Bitcoin broke through $20,000 and then fell 68%. Once liquidity tightens, those who can't run fast enough will be trapped.

Someone asked me: "When a financial crisis comes, won't gold and Bitcoin appreciate?"—They can appreciate, but there's a lot of knowledge involved. Timing is often more important than choosing which asset.

The initial scene of a crisis is usually like this: all assets may be sold off because market participants need to convert to cash to save themselves. During the Silicon Valley Bank collapse last year, Bitcoin dropped 15% in one day, and gold also experienced a brief correction. Once market sentiment calms down, funds gradually flow into assets considered safe, like gold. So, safe-haven isn't about buying gold or coins and feeling at ease; the key is to hit the right timing.

Gold's safe-haven logic is relatively traditional. It has been regarded as the ultimate safe asset for decades. After experiencing enough financial crises, the market has consensus on it. But Bitcoin is different—it has a shorter history. While consensus is building, in the face of a real liquidity crisis, no one knows if this consensus can hold. And there's a reality: if the crisis is big enough, even Bitcoin could become an asset to be sold off because people need cash.

The question now is not whether gold or Bitcoin is more powerful, but how solid the fundamentals are behind this rally. If it's all just piling up expectations, then "consensus" can easily turn into a "bubble." And as more participants join and more money flows in, the game becomes increasingly dangerous. Everyone is thinking about running out before the top, but the market is finite—there will always be someone who can't get out in time.