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Forecasting the Market Sprint to 2025: Behind the 40 Billion in Trading Volume, Are They Real Users or Just Hot Air?
【CryptoWorld】By 2025, the prediction market sector will be completely booming. The two major platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, are raising funds aggressively, securing valuations of several billion dollars from top institutions like Sequoia Capital and Intercontinental Exchange. It seems to be a glorious scene, but the question arises—out of nearly $40 billion in total trading volume on these platforms, how much is genuine demand, and how much is bubble speculation?
Upon examining the data, doubts immediately emerge. The revenue structure of these platforms has never been clearly explained, and some data indicators indeed seem inflated. Many industry insiders feel that these figures may be overly packaged.
Of course, the platform operators are not willing to accept this. They are partnering with well-known brands and expanding user channels through leading brokerages, attempting to push prediction markets into the mainstream. Their expansion efforts are indeed vigorous, but at the same time, regulatory scrutiny is sharpening—controversies over “market mention” manipulation keep surfacing, turning into a ticking time bomb for the industry.
As the 2026 election cycle approaches, can prediction markets truly prove themselves as serious financial tools rather than just gambling venues? The question remains unanswered. While the industry is booming, it is also undergoing a dual test of trust crisis and regulatory pressure.
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As for data inflation... a quick look with the RSI indicator reveals the truth. It's a typical low Earth orbit false breakout; don't be blinded by the financing amount.
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The ratio of real trading volume to bubbles should be calculated using the Fibonacci ratio to be reliable. Currently, it looks like a 7:3 false fire configuration.
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Once regulation drops the axe, the launch window may be delayed. Whether Sequoia's billion-dollar valuation can hold up is another story.
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The income structure is unclear... this is outrageous. Why is it as mysterious as the rocket's fuel cost chart?
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Want mainstream adoption? First, get the escape velocity right. Right now, it looks like we're heading for the atmosphere.
Once regulation really takes effect, a lot of platforms might collapse, right?
Sequoia has already entered the market, so what is there to doubt? Or maybe they just can't see clearly?
Another round of harvesting the little guys' money, with all the bets ultimately flowing into the platform's fees.
I've seen this trick too many times… The prediction market is good in theory, but I'm afraid it will just turn into a gambling arena for the big players.
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Sequoia backing can fool people, but they can't even explain their revenue model clearly. No wonder people are questioning.
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Raising funds to hype up the market, expanding channels, we've seen this routine many times—regulators come and everything's over.
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If the data inflation is exposed, no one will believe it. No wonder they keep hiding it.
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Is the prediction market really taking off? I think it's mainly hot money speculating.
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Isn't this just a replica of last year's NFT craze? Changing the concept to continue scamming the chives.
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By the way, are these two platforms really making money? Or are they just stacking performance with financing?
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Regulators will move sooner or later. No matter how aggressive the fundraising is now, it's all in vain.
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Can Sequoia really turn their investments into genuine demand? I'm a bit worried.
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The data inflation has been obvious for a while; the revenue model is very vague.
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Prediction markets are originally a good thing, but the fundraising wave has turned them into empty promises...
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Once regulation comes into play, can these platforms survive? Their valuations might just be vaporware.
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The real reason Polymarket is popular is because of the many gamblers, not because of real demand.
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Brand collaborations are quite gimmicky, but what about user stickiness? That’s the key.
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Another wave of venture capital chasing trends, waiting for the bubble to burst to see who’s still standing.
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With 40 billion in transaction volume, 80% is probably fake orders, I bet.
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This round of fundraising feels like a trap for later entrants.
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Sequoia investing money, does that mean the numbers are definitely legit? I doubt it.
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The revenue model is all over the place, which is ridiculous... Data inflation is definitely happening.
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Regulation is tightening rapidly; this wave of expansion might backfire.
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I've seen many brand collaborations, but isn't it all just to boost data and user numbers? Real transactions are the real deal.
Data is not transparent, and the revenue structure is a complete mystery. I've seen this trick too many times.
Sequoia pouring in money can justify anything? Wake up, everyone.
Such aggressive fundraising makes me even more anxious, often indicating fundamental issues.
Regulators will act sooner or later, and by then, how much of this 400 billion will have evaporated?
Predictive markets do have potential, but blowing bubbles like this really needs to change.
A 40 billion trading volume sounds impressive, but how is it actually calculated? I don't know
It's all about fundraising and partnerships, then they back down, once regulators come, it's all over
Polymarket boasts every day, but where are the real users?
Well-packaged, average data, this routine is quite familiar
Raising so much money, yet the revenue model is still unclear? That's a bit questionable
Predictive markets want to go mainstream? First, get the books straightened out
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Does Sequoia's investment mean it's reliable? Wake up, many projects in the last round also had big institutions backing them.
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Claiming a 400 billion revenue structure without understanding it? I've seen this move many times.
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Once regulation steps in, can these numbers be halved? A question mark.
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It's just hype and storytelling for funding. Do the market predictions really have that many genuine users? I don't believe it.
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Is Polymarket's data really that transparent? Or are they playing with numbers again?
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Is partnering with brands now mainstream? Don't be fooled, this is just a fundraising tactic.
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How much of the 400 billion is water? Can someone give an honest number?
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It looks glamorous, but in reality, it's just institutions manipulating the market. Can ordinary retail investors really make money?
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Overpackaging is a polite way to put it; it's clearly just bragging.