Federal Reserve rate cut expectations fluctuate: the probability of holding steady in January next year rises to 82%, and there is still a window for rate cuts before March.

TokenSherpa · 2025-12-28T08:20:09+00:00

【BlockBeats】The latest CME Federal Reserve watch data has been released. The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year has slightly increased to 17.7%, but the probability of holding rates steady is higher, reaching 82.3%.Looking ahead to March. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged within this window is 46.7%, with the other half involving rate cuts—an accumulated 25 basis point cut accounts for 45.6%, and a 50 basis point cut only 7.7%. In other words, the market is pricing in a very restrained rate cut outlook for the second half of the year.The schedule is set: the Federal Reserve's FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026. Will these two meetings become catalysts at the start of the year? The market is waiting for an answer.

TokenSherpa

2025-12-28 08:20:09

【区块律动】最新的CME美联储观察数据出炉了。明年1月降息25个基点的预期小幅抬升至17.7%，但维持利率不变的概率更大，达到82.3%。

往后看到3月。美联储在这个窗口内维持利率不变的概率为46.7%，另一半概率涉及降息——累计降息25个基点占45.6%，降息50个基点仅占7.7%。换句话说，下半年的降息空间被市场定价得极为克制。

时间表是确定的：美联储的FOMC会议定在2026年1月28日和3月18日。这两次会议，会不会成为年初的催化剂？市场在等答案。

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GateUser-6bc33122

· 2025-12-31 07:33

An 82% chance of no movement, what are you still expecting from interest rate cuts? It's time to wake up.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 2025-12-29 08:30

An 82% probability clearly indicates that there's no hope at the beginning of the year; the technical trend still remains weak.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 2025-12-29 03:29

82% remains unchanged? Then no cut, stop with these number games The market is so restrained in pricing, are we still waiting for some black swan? From January 28 to March 18, it feels like we're being strung along again... The Federal Reserve is so cautious, is there still hope for the crypto prices? Looking at the data, rate cuts are still a long way off

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RektRecovery

· 2025-12-28 08:50

ngl, 82% probability of no cut in jan is basically the fed saying "we're not moving" without actually saying it lol... classic security theater tbh. watched this exact pattern play out before the last three pivot attempts, and spoiler alert, none of it went down like the market expected.

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ChainSherlockGirl

· 2025-12-28 08:47

82% remains unchanged? What does this data indicate? It just means Powell is reassuring the market. If there's really a rate cut, it won't happen until March. Hmm, interestingly, that 7.7% with 50 basis points... who's betting on this? On-chain wallet addresses need to be tracked. At the end of January and mid-March, we should indeed keep an eye on these two FOMC meetings. In my analysis, these are the real game-changers at the start of the year... I'm a bit期待破局了. The market is so restrained, the rate cut room is locked, but it feels like the reversal space might actually be larger later. It seems the spectators have all misjudged; the CME data always shows a small reversal each time.

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TxFailed

· 2025-12-28 08:44

yo so 82% chance fed just sits tight in jan... honestly? *technically speaking* this is the classic "we're all pretending rates might drop but they won't" trade setup. seen this movie before, didn't end well

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staking_gramps

· 2025-12-28 08:43

82% chance of not moving? Looks like interest rate cuts aren't that easy. If this continues, the coin price will have to keep fluctuating.

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pvt_key_collector

· 2025-12-28 08:41

82% chance of no movement... Is the Federal Reserve just holding back and waiting for what? It feels like January is just a show.

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WalletDivorcer

· 2025-12-28 08:39

82% No rate cut? Damn, looks like we'll really have to wait until March.

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WhaleStalker

· 2025-12-28 08:36

82% chance of not moving... This is the Federal Reserve saying "wait a bit longer," the market is pricing in such restraint, and retail investors are still dreaming.

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