2025-12-28 10:21:08

The market screams every day, but truly useful signals are actually scarce.

I've been messing around in the crypto world for many years, stepping on countless pits before I realized a painful truth — those making money are not the ones trading most frequently. They are more like snipers: most of the time waiting, only taking action when the opportunity is about 80-90% right.

Thinking about my own "tuition fees," I really want to laugh. I used to trade dozens of times a day, only to have my annual profits completely swallowed by fees; chasing hot trends like Huobi and jumping on the bandwagon, always ending up as the bag holder, buying at the top and selling at the bottom; even once, in a moment of impulsiveness, using leverage to hold a heavy position, only to be completely liquidated before dawn.

Later, I realized that the secret to stable profits is not complicated — it’s simply trading less. More effective than technical indicators, more critical than trading speed.

**70% of the time is spent "watching"**

The true state of the market: 90% of the time is sideways movement, and opportunities to act are few and far between. This stage tests not technical prowess but whether you can resist acting.

I’ve developed a "three-layer filtering" method, which works pretty well:

**First layer: Trend**

Just focus on one indicator — whether the price stays above the 60-day moving average. As long as the price is above this line, it indicates a medium-term uptrend, and such assets are worth paying attention to. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages being aligned bullish is a bonus, but not as important as the price staying above the 60-day MA.

**Second layer: Sentiment**

Check the Fear & Greed Index daily. When the market is extremely fearful, it’s often a good opportunity to lurk; when everyone is euphoric, be cautious. Also, don’t ignore on-chain data — especially the movements of big whale wallets. If whales are quietly accumulating a token but the price isn’t moving much, it’s often a hint — "smart money" is positioning.

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BakedCatFanboy

· 14h ago

Damn, that really hits home. I used to be the kind of person who couldn't stand not trading for a day, feeling uncomfortable all over. I even paid so many fees that my dad didn't recognize me anymore. The few times I got liquidated were truly before dawn. Looking back, I was just pure brainless. But this 60-day moving average screening method is pretty good, much better than my previous focus on candlesticks. It really tests a person's patience and discipline. The real challenge is resisting the urge to act.

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DegenMcsleepless

· 14h ago

That's right, transaction fees are truly the invisible killer. Making dozens of trades a day is basically a suicidal approach. It's tough to watch others rise while you're missing out, but liquidation is even worse. Patience is still key. The 60-day moving average system is indeed reliable, much better than random guesses. Hold on, I need to pay attention to the fact that whale accumulation is a good signal. Actually, the hardest part is to stick to not trading. Really, it's a hundred times more difficult than technical analysis. Making money is just like this—waiting for the right opportunity takes more courage than bottom-fishing...

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ser_we_are_ngmi

· 14h ago

Really, the fee structure makes me unable to smile; a year of trading is all blood and tears. Sticking to it is the real skill; most people simply can't sit still. I've been paying attention to the whale accumulation signal for a while, and it's quite accurate. Instead of looking at a bunch of technical indicators, it's better to just stick to the 60-day moving average—simple and straightforward. Extreme panic is the real buying opportunity; I have deep experience with this. The era of dozens of orders a day is over; now we're just waiting for that roughly 80-90% chance opportunity.

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BearWhisperGod

· 14h ago

Really, I've also gone through the phase of trading dozens of times a day, where the transaction fees eat up the profits enough to buy a house.

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MetaLord420

· 14h ago

Really, I understand the fee killer too well. I used to be a trading machine, now I just want to sit back and win. The days of dozens of trades a day were a nightmare, with fees exceeding profits haha. Waiting is the most valuable skill, but most people simply can't sit still. I also use the 60-day moving average, simple, straightforward, and effective. Whales quietly accumulating without moving the price? That's a signal. Smart money is never in a hurry.

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GasGoblin

· 14h ago

Damn, that hits too close to home. I used to be the kind of active trader making dozens of trades a day, and as a result, half of my profits were eaten up by fees haha

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