#比特币市场动态 The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is still alive, but the gameplay has completely changed. In the past, halving was the main event; now, politics and liquidity are the real behind-the-scenes manipulators. Looking at the historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, they all cluster in Q4, corresponding to election cycles and political fluctuations, rather than halving dates.

The current situation is that although the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, institutional investors have become the main force; when they tighten their hands, funds stop flowing. Coupled with a weak liquidity environment, the speed of capital entering the market has significantly slowed down. Relying solely on Bitcoin to push prices up is unrealistic. Instead of expecting a parabolic rise, it's better to prepare psychologically—this period is more likely to be a range-bound consolidation, waiting for liquidity to improve.

The crypto world is like this: hot spots are always changing, but the mindset of bottom-fishing never changes.