The latest Federal Reserve policy expectations have suddenly taken a turn.

CME Fed Funds Futures data just updated, and the numbers tell a clear story:

The probability of holding interest rates steady in January is as high as 82%, and the market has little suspense about recent decisions. But by March, the situation reverses rapidly— the probabilities of holding steady and cutting rates by 25 basis points are nearly tied at 46.7% and 53.3%, respectively.

This marks the first clear market expectation leaning toward rate cuts, which is quite significant.

A while ago, some media mistakenly labeled the meeting year as 2026, though it was later corrected. But what does this farce actually reflect? It shows how strong the market’s eagerness for rate cuts really is. Everyone has been waiting too long.

The current situation is basically taking shape: January is for observing, and March will be the real watershed. But the contest is extremely fierce, with both sides almost evenly matched.

The next two months will be crucial. Any fluctuation in CPI, PCE, or Non-Farm Payrolls could directly change the Federal Reserve’s decision direction. The market will be driven by these numbers.

What do you think? When will the first rate cut actually happen?