BITCOIN’S YEAR-END PIVOT: LONG-TERM HOLDERS RE-ACCUMULATE AS BTC FIGHTS FOR A $90,840 RECOVERY

As 2025 reaches its final hours, Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a subtle but profound shift in market structure that could pave the way for a New Year’s relief rally. While the surface-level price action remains muted, two critical signals an On-Balance Volume (OBV) trendline breakout and the first flip to positive HODLer accumulation in three months suggest that the floor is being reinforced by high-conviction investors. However, with year-end liquidity thinning, Bitcoin faces a formidable technical “gatekeeper” at the $90,840 level, which must be reclaimed to transform this defensive positioning into a sustained upward move toward $100,000. I. The Return of Conviction: HODLers Flip the Script The most significant on-chain development this week is the reversal of a three-month distribution trend among Bitcoin’s most patient investors: First Positive Flip Since September: On December 26, the Hodler Net Position Change metric flipped positive for the first time since late September. Long-term holders those who have held for more than 155 days added approximately 3,783 BTC to their wallets.Institutional Signaling: These “slow movers” typically buy for long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation. Their return to accumulation suggests that the current price range is viewed as a value zone, providing a much-needed “spine” to the market’s support levels as we head into 2026. II. Technical Breakout: OBV Signals Rising Pressure Supporting the on-chain data is a shift in volume dynamics that hints at a brewing momentum change: OBV Trendline Break: For much of late December, Bitcoin price and On-Balance Volume (OBV) were divergent, with volume failing to support minor price rises. However, OBV has now broken above a long-standing descending trendline, signaling that buying pressure is finally beginning to outpace selling pressure.Validation Levels: While the breakout is promising, it requires one final confirmation: OBV must make a higher high above the 1.58 million mark. If this occurs, it would likely serve as the catalyst for the price to finally attack its overhead resistance zones. III. Conclusion and New Year’s Price Map The short-term outlook for Bitcoin is one of “cautious optimism” battling against thin holiday liquidity. The foundation for a relief rally is being built by long-term holders, but the technical targets remain steep. The $90,840 Hurdle: This level has rejected every recovery attempt for nearly two weeks. A clean close above this mark is essential to target the first major rally checkpoint at $97,190.Targeting $100k: If momentum carries through, the next logical targets for early 2026 sit at $101,710 and $107,470.Downside Floor: The entire bullish setup rests on the $86,915 support level. If thin year-end liquidity triggers a breakdown below this floor, Bitcoin risks a deeper correction toward $80,560, invalidating the current recovery thesis.Final Take: Bitcoin is finishing 2025 in a state of quiet accumulation. If the $86,915 support holds through the New Year’s lull, the return of market participation in January could easily flip the $90,840 resistance, setting the stage for a run at six-figure valuations. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.