Recently, I've been pondering a question: should I buy gold or silver?

Looking back at the paths taken by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various altcoins, we can roughly infer how gold, silver, and other precious metals will behave next. The key is to view this through first principles.

Bitcoin was once so crazy, and the fundamental reason was actually one—excessive money issuance. Society’s total wealth is growing explosively, but wealth distribution has never been even. The result? A large amount of idle cash among the wealthy has nowhere to go, and ordinary people are also afraid of falling behind, all seeking a reservoir for their funds. The stock market is indeed a water reservoir, but the problem is it has a fixed valuation model, with rises and falls tied to company performance. The speed of money issuance far exceeds the rate at which companies make money, so new reservoirs must be found. Cryptocurrency just hit the right wind at this point.

A few years ago, I said that buying Bitcoin, this digital gold, is not as good as directly buying real gold. Now, more and more people—including governments—are starting to think the same way. Capital is gradually flowing into gold, and Bitcoin’s heat is cooling down.

But the game of capital never changes. The precious metals circle is just a replica of the crypto world back then. Gold plays the role of Bitcoin, and silver is like Ethereum. What’s the pattern? The leader rises first, steadily increasing. When the leader’s price becomes too high, speculators turn their attention to the second, which, due to its smaller market cap, often surges even more. The third and fourth can even multiply dozens of times. But that’s the trap.

There’s an old saying in finance: buy the leading stock.

History will repeat itself. Ultimately, gold and silver will follow the same trajectory as Bitcoin and Ethereum— the leader rises first, progressing steadily; after the second catches on, it begins to surge wildly, followed by big swings; but the most profitable always goes to the leader. Of course, silver has its own issues: strong production cycles, occasional tight or excess inventories, small market cap, too much speculative capital, and no central bank backing—these are all risks.

This year, gold has performed well, but silver and other precious metals have surged even more fiercely. Honestly, I don’t have the courage to chase after the big swings in silver. I also lack the skill to precisely time the market, so I only dare to focus on long-term steady growth in gold.

At this price level, entering now, and even without waiting too long, it’s a sure thing that gold will outperform silver.