A potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve that could reshape global capital flows is quietly underway.

According to the latest CME data, market expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts are subtly adjusting. The probability of a rate cut in January next year has slightly increased to 17.7%, while by March, the chance of holding rates steady has fallen to 46.7% — reflecting that the policy turning point may arrive sooner than previously anticipated by the market.

But what truly draws attention is the contest for the Fed chairmanship. Reports indicate that Trump is planning to replace Powell in 2026. On prediction platforms like Polymarket, the race for the successor has become highly competitive: bets on Haskett have dropped to 42%, while Wosh is rapidly catching up at 31%. A change in leadership could lead to significant adjustments in the policy framework established over the past few years, including inflation response strategies and even global asset pricing logic.

What does this mean?

First, the announcement of a new chair in early 2026 will be a key milestone — the market needs to assess whether the successor leans toward a dovish, easing stance or remains committed to fighting inflation with a hawkish approach. Second, the coherence of monetary policy accumulated during Powell’s tenure faces a test; whether the new leadership will overturn the existing framework remains uncertain. Third, the global market’s pricing logic may be recalibrated, affecting the flow of various assets such as stocks, bonds, and currencies.

For the cryptocurrency market, any shift in the Fed’s policy direction will have a direct impact. Expectations of easing will boost risk assets’ attractiveness, while policy surprises could trigger volatility. The probabilities currently bet on only reflect short-term sentiment; the actual path remains uncertain — every economic data release and policy statement could rewrite market expectations anew.

The performance of mainstream tokens like $BTC $ZEC $FLOW will be reinterpreted in this “big bank overhaul” in 2026.