The underrated way to make money in prediction markets: Selective outcome arbitrage

In prediction markets like Polymarket, there is a little-known arbitrage strategy that fewer than 5% of traders master, but it can consistently generate nearly 100% returns over the long term.

This tactic is especially suitable for multi-outcome markets—such as who will be the Super Bowl champion in 2026. The approach is simple: start by gradually buying YES shares for each team at high prices, continuously increasing positions until the average cost drops to around $0.009.

In my actual case, I bought the Rams at 16.3 points, corresponding to a cost of 0.163; I started positioning in Seattle at 12.5 points, with an accumulated cost of 0.288; plus a position in Buffalo at 11.0 points... Through this laddered position-building method, I ultimately kept the overall cost at the expected level.

The core logic is: markets often overestimate the probability of a single outcome. In multi-outcome markets, you can exploit market inefficiencies through diversified positioning to gain an edge. It looks simple, but most retail traders never consider this perspective.