Year-End Weekly Market Analysis Ideas:

**Key Points to Watch**

Next week, what truly can shake the market won't be economic data, but the event itself. Specifically, one event—international peace negotiations. Around 2 a.m. on Monday, a U.S. leader will meet with Ukraine to discuss a ceasefire agreement. According to current information, the U.S. and Russia have basically reached a consensus, with the real deadlock lying between Ukraine and Europe. If Ukraine indicates agreement, a ceasefire deal may be reached; but at what cost? Ceding territory, disarmament, abandoning NATO membership—these conditions would have a huge psychological impact on Ukraine and Europe. So, whether the negotiations will succeed ultimately depends on the outcome. Once a conclusion is reached, the market is likely to experience significant volatility. Everyone must keep a close eye on this window.

**Central Bank Policy Signals**

Next week, two central bank meeting minutes are also worth watching: Monday will release the Bank of Japan’s December monetary policy meeting minutes, and Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting minutes. Although these are post-meeting summaries, they reveal the central banks’ true thoughts on next year’s policy direction. For example, whether the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates next year, the timing and magnitude of hikes, or how the Fed views the pace of rate cuts next year and internal disagreements—these are all critical information for traders.

**Liquidity Traps**

Another detail that is easily overlooked but crucial to trading experience: holiday combined with liquidity drying up. After Wednesday evening, major global markets will basically enter the New Year holiday, and full recovery will only happen the Monday after next. From a trading perspective, liquidity will significantly shrink starting Wednesday afternoon, with volatility possibly diminishing to boredom, or due to sparse participation, producing strange market moves. Stay alert during this period!