Recently, discussions around government Bitcoin reserves have remained hot. In March this year, the U.S. government announced a notable move—adding approximately 210,000 confiscated Bitcoins (currently worth about $18 billion) to the national strategic reserve, rather than auctioning them into the market as in the past. This decision directly changed supply-side expectations.

On the surface, this move's symbolic significance far exceeds its actual impact. Reclassifying Bitcoin from a 'problematic asset' to an officially recognized reserve tool sets a benchmark for global institutions and governments—if even the U.S. is not selling, what does that imply? In the long term, this can indeed ease supply-side uncertainty and reduce the anxiety of massive sell-off pressures hanging overhead.

But the reality is, without fresh capital flowing into the market, price support remains limited. Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around 87k, and this sideways trend by year-end is within expectations—the entire market is waiting for next year's policies and actual allocation actions to take effect. In the long run, the confirmation effect of policy will gradually manifest, while short-term liquidity-driven factors remain the main variables.

Is the path of government reserves going to continue expanding or maintain the status quo? The answer to this question will directly influence market expectations in the coming years.