Most forecasts about AI replacing "all knowledge work" hinge on a simple extrapolation error:

They confuse task performance with judgment.

People see AI demolish mid-level tasks and assume the curve continues smoothly upward.

But the top of knowledge work isn’t a harder version of the middle. It’s a different regime entirely.

When the job stops being “solve the problem” and becomes “pick the right problem,” the rules flip.

Models get better at tasks with a scoreboard.

Judgment is choosing the scoreboard, and paying for misses.