【Technical Warning】Ethereum's 4-hour chart shows an extreme oversold signal, with RSI plummeting to 21.1. Historically, such levels often accompany a rebound. However, the interesting contradiction at the moment is that the daily trend remains downward, with the price stuck at 2947, while the short-term 1-hour indicators are flashing reversal signs. In the next few hours, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will become clear.

The core issue here is: the "collapse-level" oversold condition suggests a strong rebound expectation, but the daily downtrend is warning "don't be too optimistic." The signal quality rating is B+, so while the opportunity is clear, the risk is equally significant.

From a technical perspective, the key defense lines are:
· Bulls attempting to defend the 2928-2935 zone, just above the 1-hour support at 2926
· The lifeline below is 2890; a break below this level would cause the bullish logic to collapse directly

If you want to operate in this environment, the approach is: trade short-term rebounds against the daily trend. Specifically, wait for the price to retest 2928-2935, and only enter when a 1-hour bullish signal appears. The key is position control—no more than 3% of total funds—since this is essentially a short-term probe, not a trend reversal.

Several ironclad rules after entering: set stop-loss at 2890, and if touched, exit immediately; after reaching the first target at 2960, quickly move the stop-loss to the cost basis to protect profits; if the price directly breaks below 2926 and closes below, abandon the long idea and consider switching to short. The last critical point—never chase the rally at the current 2947 level, as that invites trouble.

In short, trading rebounds in a clear downtrend is like walking a tightrope; discipline is the only thing that can save you.

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Disclaimer: This article is a short-term technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and may result in the loss of all principal. Please make independent decisions based on your risk tolerance.