Something strange has happened over the past two months: a whale address has been aggressively accumulating ETH, adding over 4.8 million tokens, with a market value close to $14 billion. In other words, this is a massive influx of real money entering the market.

But here’s the problem—despite this, the price hasn't taken off; instead, it has fallen from around 3300 to about 2900, a decline of nearly 12%. That’s unbelievable. Normally, such large buy orders should support the price, right? The stark contrast suggests there’s more to the story.

There are two possible scenarios. One optimistic: the whale is quietly building a position at the low, waiting for a clear catalyst—such as an upgrade in the first quarter of next year—to trigger a rally. The other, more painful possibility: even with these big players accumulating, the overall market selling pressure is fiercer. Retail investors are panicking, some big holders are taking profits, and the buying volume can’t withstand this pressure, keeping the price firmly suppressed.

The key question is: where are these bought ETH going? On-chain data shows a large amount of ETH flowing into staking contracts, with the staking rate approaching 30%. Some are also moving into institutional wallets. What does this mean? Liquidity is being rapidly locked up, and the actual selling pressure might not be as severe as it appears.

The current situation is like a spring being constantly tightened. As long as the support level at 2850 holds, and the overall BTC market doesn’t fall too hard, the hundreds of billions of chips accumulated by the whale could unleash a terrifying upward surge at any moment.

But there’s no need to rush at this stage. Before this divergence signal is broken, the market remains in a fragile balance. The best approach for retail investors is not to rush into short positions or blindly buy the dip, but to honestly watch the real supply and demand changes on the chain. These data don’t lie. Either wait and see what the whale does next, or be more patient.